The Prediction Markets

Pennsylvania's 13th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$38K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Joyce, 32+ pts 71%

Next is Joyce, 35+ pts at 57%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Joyce, 32+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joyce, 32+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
94.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$376
Trade this on Kalshi
Joyce, 35+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joyce, 35+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
94.7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
49.6%
Polymarket 49.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 89.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
49.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
89.7¢
Sell Yes
9.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joyce, 38+ pts
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joyce, 38+ pts
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joyce, 44+ pts
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joyce, 44+ pts
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joyce, 29+ pts
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 91.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joyce, 29+ pts
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
91.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joyce, 47+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joyce, 47+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Joyce, 41+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joyce, 41+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
20.8%
Polymarket 20.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
20.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joyce, 53+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joyce, 53+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Republican 40-45%
13.9%
Polymarket 13.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 26.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $376 (3.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
13.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
26.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$376 (3.76x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joyce, 50+ pts
7.3%
Kalshi 7.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joyce, 50+ pts
Last price
7.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 50-55%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50-55%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-25%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-25%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45-50%
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$986
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$790
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-15%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-15%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$768
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 55%+
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 55%+
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Pennsylvania Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Joyce, 32+ pts
  • Joyce, 35+ pts
  • Republican 35-40%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Joyce, 32+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pennsylvania's 13th District margin of victory". Joyce, 32+ pts leads at 71%. Next is Joyce, 35+ pts at 57%. $38K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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