The Prediction Markets

Pennsylvania's 14th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$30K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Reschenthaler, 17+ pts 87%

Next is Reschenthaler, 20+ pts at 74%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Reschenthaler, 17+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reschenthaler, 17+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Reschenthaler, 20+ pts
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 97.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reschenthaler, 20+ pts
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
97.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Reschenthaler, 26+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reschenthaler, 26+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Kalshi
Reschenthaler, 23+ pts
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reschenthaler, 23+ pts
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Reschenthaler, 32+ pts
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reschenthaler, 32+ pts
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Reschenthaler, 38+ pts
48.4%
Kalshi 48.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reschenthaler, 38+ pts
Last price
48.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Reschenthaler, 29+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reschenthaler, 29+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5-15%
24.4%
Polymarket 24.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-15%
Last price
24.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
13.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Reschenthaler, 35+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reschenthaler, 35+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$352
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Republican 20-25%
15.1%
Polymarket 15.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
15.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
9.7%
Polymarket 9.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 18.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $535 (5.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
9.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
18.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$535 (5.35x)
Volume
$998
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45%+
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45%+
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Reschenthaler, 41+ pts
2.4%
Kalshi 2.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reschenthaler, 41+ pts
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$830
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$675
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Pennsylvania Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Reschenthaler, 17+ pts
  • Reschenthaler, 20+ pts
  • Reschenthaler, 26+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Reschenthaler, 17+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pennsylvania's 14th District margin of victory". Reschenthaler, 17+ pts leads at 87%. Next is Reschenthaler, 20+ pts at 74%. $30K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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