The Prediction Markets

Pennsylvania's 16th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Kelly, 3+ pts 89.5%

Next is Kelly, 6+ pts at 80.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kelly, 3+ pts
89.5%
Kalshi 89.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly, 3+ pts
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kelly, 6+ pts
80.5%
Kalshi 80.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly, 6+ pts
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kelly, 9+ pts
69.5%
Kalshi 69.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly, 9+ pts
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kelly, 12+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly, 12+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Kelly, 15+ pts
40.5%
Kalshi 40.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly, 15+ pts
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kelly, 18+ pts
26.5%
Kalshi 26.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly, 18+ pts
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kelly, 21+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly, 21+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$190
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5-10%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Republican 20-25%
17.7%
Polymarket 17.7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 20.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $481 (4.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
17.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.8¢
Sell Yes
14.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$481 (4.81x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kelly, 24+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly, 24+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Kalshi
Kelly, 27+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly, 27+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$367
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kelly, 30+ pts
5.4%
Kalshi 5.4%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly, 30+ pts
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35%+
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kelly, 33+ pts
3.3%
Kalshi 3.3%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly, 33+ pts
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kelly, 3+ pts
  • Kelly, 6+ pts
  • Kelly, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Kelly, 3+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pennsylvania's 16th District margin of victory". Kelly, 3+ pts leads at 89.5%. Next is Kelly, 6+ pts at 80.5%. $23K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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