The Prediction Markets

Pennsylvania's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Fitzpatrick, 2+ pts 45%

Next is Harvie, 1+ pts at 37%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Fitzpatrick, 2+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, just nowBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fitzpatrick, 2+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$981
Trade this on Kalshi
Harvie, 1+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harvie, 1+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fitzpatrick, 5+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fitzpatrick, 5+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fitzpatrick, 8+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fitzpatrick, 8+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Harvie, 4+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harvie, 4+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $488 (4.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.5¢
Sell Yes
19.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$488 (4.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $546 (5.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18.3¢
Sell Yes
16.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$546 (5.46x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fitzpatrick, 11+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fitzpatrick, 11+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Harvie, 7+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harvie, 7+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$876
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
9.6%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $746 (7.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.4¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$746 (7.46x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Polymarket
Harvie, 10+ pts
9.2%
Kalshi 9.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harvie, 10+ pts
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fitzpatrick, 14+ pts
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fitzpatrick, 14+ pts
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 12%+
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$784
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12%+
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$291
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$298
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Pennsylvania Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fitzpatrick, 2+ pts
  • Harvie, 1+ pts
  • Fitzpatrick, 5+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Fitzpatrick, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pennsylvania's 1st District margin of victory". Fitzpatrick, 2+ pts leads at 45%. Next is Harvie, 1+ pts at 37%. $19K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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