The Prediction Markets

Pennsylvania's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$12K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Rabb, 64+ pts 96%

Next is Rabb, 67+ pts at 86%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Rabb, 64+ pts
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rabb, 64+ pts
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$926
Trade this on Kalshi
Rabb, 67+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 93.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rabb, 67+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.7¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Rabb, 70+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rabb, 70+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Rabb, 76+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rabb, 76+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Kalshi
Rabb, 73+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rabb, 73+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Rabb, 79+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rabb, 79+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$997
Trade this on Kalshi
Rabb, 82+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rabb, 82+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rabb, 85+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rabb, 85+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$975
Trade this on Kalshi
Rabb, 88+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rabb, 88+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rabb, 64+ pts
  • Rabb, 67+ pts
  • Rabb, 70+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pennsylvania's 3rd District margin of victory". Rabb, 64+ pts leads at 96%. Next is Rabb, 67+ pts at 86%. $12K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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