The Prediction Markets

Pennsylvania's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Dean, 12+ pts 87%

Next is Dean, 15+ pts at 80%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Dean, 12+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 91.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean, 12+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.4¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$739
Trade this on Kalshi
Dean, 15+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean, 15+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Kalshi
Dean, 18+ pts
66.5%
Kalshi 66.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean, 18+ pts
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dean, 21+ pts
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean, 21+ pts
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$640
Trade this on Kalshi
Dean, 24+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean, 24+ pts
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$74
Trade this on Kalshi
Dean, 27+ pts
37.5%
Kalshi 37.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean, 27+ pts
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dean, 30+ pts
28.5%
Kalshi 28.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean, 30+ pts
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dean, 33+ pts
18.5%
Kalshi 18.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean, 33+ pts
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Democrat 25-30%
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dean, 36+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean, 36+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40%+
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40%+
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$788
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dean, 12+ pts
  • Dean, 15+ pts
  • Dean, 18+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Dean, 12+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pennsylvania's 4th District margin of victory". Dean, 12+ pts leads at 87%. Next is Dean, 15+ pts at 80%. $15K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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