The Prediction Markets

Pennsylvania's 8th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Cognetti, 2+ pts 71%

Next is Cognetti, 5+ pts at 47%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cognetti, 2+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cognetti, 2+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$459
Trade this on Kalshi
Cognetti, 5+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cognetti, 5+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Kalshi
Cognetti, 8+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cognetti, 8+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$797
Trade this on Kalshi
Cognetti, 11+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cognetti, 11+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bresnahan, 1+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bresnahan, 1+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$635
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bresnahan, 4+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bresnahan, 4+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
17.4%
Polymarket 17.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $575 (5.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
17.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17.4¢
Sell Yes
17.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$575 (5.75x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $439 (4.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$439 (4.39x)
Volume
$511
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Bresnahan, 7+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bresnahan, 7+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bresnahan, 10+ pts
8.6%
Kalshi 8.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bresnahan, 10+ pts
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Cognetti, 14+ pts
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cognetti, 14+ pts
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 9-12%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$987
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12%+
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$682
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12%+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$297
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Pennsylvania Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cognetti, 2+ pts
  • Cognetti, 5+ pts
  • Cognetti, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Cognetti, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pennsylvania's 8th District margin of victory". Cognetti, 2+ pts leads at 71%. Next is Cognetti, 5+ pts at 47%. $27K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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