The Prediction Markets

Pennsylvania's 9th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Meuser, 20+ pts 85%

Next is Meuser, 23+ pts at 79%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Meuser, 20+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meuser, 20+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96.7¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Meuser, 23+ pts
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meuser, 23+ pts
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Meuser, 26+ pts
71.5%
Kalshi 71.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meuser, 26+ pts
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Meuser, 29+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meuser, 29+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Kalshi
Meuser, 32+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meuser, 32+ pts
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Kalshi
Meuser, 35+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meuser, 35+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$663
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meuser, 38+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meuser, 38+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meuser, 41+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meuser, 41+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Republican 20-25%
14.3%
Polymarket 14.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
14.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meuser, 44+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meuser, 44+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-10%
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 50%+
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50%+
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$264
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-20%
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-20%
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45-50%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$291
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Pennsylvania Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Meuser, 20+ pts
  • Meuser, 23+ pts
  • Meuser, 26+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Meuser, 20+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pennsylvania's 9th District margin of victory". Meuser, 20+ pts leads at 85%. Next is Meuser, 23+ pts at 79%. $17K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets