The Prediction Markets

People's Sexiest Man Alive 2026

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$314K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Noah Wyle 70.8%

Next is David Corenswet at 5.8%. The venues differ most on Timothée Chalamet (Polymarket 3.2%, Kalshi 1%), a 2.1-point gap.

Noah Wyle 70.8%David Corenswet 5.8%Bad Bunny 2.5%Clavicular 2.2%Timothée Chalamet 1.3%21 others 17.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Noah Wyle
70.8%
Polymarket 85.5%(69.6% fair)polled, 39s agoKalshi 87%(71.1% fair)polled, 39s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Noah Wyle
Last price
85.5%
Fair, margin removed
69.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Noah Wyle
Last price
87%
Fair, margin removed
71.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 85¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 86¢.

David Corenswet
5.8%
Kalshi 7%(5.7% fair)polled, 39s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Corenswet
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bad Bunny
2.5%
Polymarket 3.3%(2.7% fair)polled, 39s agoKalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 39s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
3.3%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.8¢.

Clavicular
2.2%
Polymarket 2.7%(2.2% fair)polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clavicular
Last price
2.7%
Fair, margin removed
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$102K
Trade this on Polymarket
Timothée ChalametArb
1.3%
Polymarket 3.2%(2.6% fair)polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
3.2%
Fair, margin removed
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Ali G
1.3%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ali G
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael B. Jordan
0.9%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael B. Jordan
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael B. Jordan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ryan Gosling
0.9%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Travis Kelce
0.9%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Travis Kelce
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Travis Kelce
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Chris Evans
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Evans
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 16 more outcomes
Drake
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drake
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Harry Styles
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Styles
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jason Kelce
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jason Kelce
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jensen Ackles
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jensen Ackles
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jimmy Garoppolo
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jimmy Garoppolo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Allen
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Matt Damon
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oscar Isaac
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oscar Isaac
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pedro Pascal
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Pattinson
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shawn Mendes
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shawn Mendes
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Holland
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tramell Tillman
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tramell Tillman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$782
Trade this on Kalshi
Zohran Mamdani
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Connor Storrie
0.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Connor Storrie
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Connor Storrie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Hudson Williams
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hudson Williams
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$953
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hudson Williams
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Timothée Chalamet on Kalshi at 1¢, sell on Polymarket at 1.1¢ (10 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: people.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: People
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Noah Wyle
  • David Corenswet
  • Bad Bunny

Live prices for Noah Wyle

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "People's Sexiest Man Alive 2026". Noah Wyle leads at 70.8%. Next is David Corenswet at 5.8%. $314K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the name of the person who is named People Magazine's Sexiest Man Alive. If more than one person is named Sexiest Man Alive by People Magazine, this market will resolve in favor of the person whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If no Sexiest Man Alive is announced for 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be People (https://people.com/) or a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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