The Prediction Markets

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

Closed
Sep 1, 2026
Traded
$1.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2028
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2028
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$826
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2029
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2029
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$993
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2027
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2027
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2027
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$156K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
14.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 16s agoPolymarket 1.7%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 15.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$676K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jul 1, 2026
2.3%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2026
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$187K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2026
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$145K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Pete Hegseth, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jul 1, 2028
  • Before Jan 1, 2029
  • Before Jan 1, 2028

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Jul 1, 2028 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?". Before Jul 1, 2028 last traded at 86%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 82%. $1.6M has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market closed on Sep 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets