The Prediction Markets

PHIVOLCS raises Mayon to Alert Level 4 by...?

Closes
Nov 16, 2026, in 7 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

November 30, 2026 50.5%

Next is November 15, 2026 at 6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
November 30, 2026
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30, 2026
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
November 15, 2026
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 15, 2026
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • November 30, 2026
  • November 15, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

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Top of book

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "PHIVOLCS raises Mayon to Alert Level 4 by...?". November 30, 2026 leads at 50.5%. Next is November 15, 2026 at 6%. $1K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) raises Mayon Volcano to Alert Level 4 or higher at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A raise directly to Alert Level 5 qualifies. A qualifying raise counts even if PHIVOLCS later lowers the alert level. Statements that the alert level may be raised, evacuation orders, and declarations by other agencies or local governments will not be considered for resolution. Resolution turns on the time PHIVOLCS issues the bulletin or advisory raising the alert level, not the time of the underlying volcanic activity. The resolution source for this market will be official PHIVOLCS Mayon Volcano bulletins and advisories (https://wovodat.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/bulletin/list-of-bulletin). Please note that this market is about the alert level according to PHIVOLCS, not according to any other sources.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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PHIVOLCS raises Mayon to Alert Level 4 by...? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets