The Prediction Markets

Playoff Home Run leader

Closes
Dec 8, 2026, in 46 days
Traded
$26K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Ben Rice 36.2%

Next is William Contreras at 22.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Ben Rice 36.2%William Contreras 22.2%Yandy Díaz 14%Jackson Chourio 13.2%Jonathan Aranda 3.3%11 others 11.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Ben Rice
36.2%
Kalshi 44%(36.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Rice
Last price
44%
Fair, margin removed
36.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
William Contreras
22.2%
Kalshi 27%(22.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Contreras
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
22.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yandy Díaz
14%
Kalshi 17%(14% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yandy Díaz
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson Chourio
13.2%
Kalshi 16%(13.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson Chourio
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
13.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jonathan Aranda
3.3%
Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jonathan Aranda
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Kalshi
Junior Caminero
2.5%
Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Junior Caminero
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$903
Trade this on Kalshi
Brice Turang
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brice Turang
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Sal Frelick
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sal Frelick
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Cedric Mullins
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cedric Mullins
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chandler Simpson
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chandler Simpson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Christian Yelich
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christian Yelich
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jo Adell
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jo Adell
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Kalshi
José Ramírez
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
José Ramírez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$683
Trade this on Kalshi
Chase DeLauter
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chase DeLauter
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Steven Kwan
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steven Kwan
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Travis Bazzana
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Travis Bazzana
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ben Rice
  • William Contreras
  • Yandy Díaz

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Playoff Home Run leader". Ben Rice leads at 36.2%. Next is William Contreras at 22.2%. $26K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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