The Prediction Markets

Ponchet vs Leonard

LiveKickoff In play now; prices move fast
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Manon Leonard 99%

Next is Set Handicap: Manon Leonard (-1.5) vs Jessika Ponchet (+1.5) at 50%. The venues differ most on Ponchet (Polymarket 7%, Kalshi 2%), a 5.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Manon Leonard
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Manon Leonard
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Set Handicap: Manon Leonard (-1.5) vs Jessika Ponchet (+1.5)
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 54s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Manon Leonard (-1.5) vs Jessika Ponchet (+1.5)
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
PonchetArb
4.8%
Polymarket 7%polled, 54s agoKalshi 2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
W50 Cherbourg-en-Cotentin: Jessika Ponchet vs Manon Leonard
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jessika Ponchet
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$890
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 6¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Set Handicap: Jessika Ponchet (-1.5) vs Manon Leonard (+1.5)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Jessika Ponchet (-1.5) vs Manon Leonard (+1.5)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$535
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Ponchet on Kalshi at 3¢, sell on Polymarket at 6¢ (300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 30, 2026, 12:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 12:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: itftennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ITF, ESPN, Flashscore
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 12:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 12:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Manon Leonard
  • Set Handicap: Manon Leonard (-1.5) vs Jessika Ponchet (+1.5)
  • Ponchet

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Manon Leonard for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ponchet vs Leonard". Manon Leonard leads at 99%. Next is Set Handicap: Manon Leonard (-1.5) vs Jessika Ponchet (+1.5) at 50%. $4K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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