The Prediction Markets

PPI YoY - October 2026

Closes
Nov 14, 2026, in 22 days
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

6.8%+ 26.9%

Next is 6.5% at 16.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

6.8%+ 26.9%6.5% 16.1%6.7% 13.2%6.4% 11.1%5.9% 10.8%5 others 21.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
6.8%+
26.9%
Polymarket 27.5%(26.9% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.8%+
Last price
27.5%
Fair, margin removed
26.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$624
Trade this on Polymarket
6.5%
16.1%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.5%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
6.7%
13.2%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.7%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$947
Trade this on Polymarket
6.4%
11.1%
Polymarket 11.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 12.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $800 (8.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.4%
Last price
11.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
12.5¢
Sell Yes
10.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$800 (8.00x)
Volume
$308
Trade this on Polymarket
5.9%
10.8%
Polymarket 11.1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.9%
Last price
11.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Polymarket
6.2%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.2%
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Polymarket
6.6%
5.3%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.6%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
6.0%
4.9%
Polymarket 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.0%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$767
Trade this on Polymarket
6.1%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.1%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Polymarket
6.3%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.3%
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bls.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 6.8%+
  • 6.5%
  • 6.7%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "PPI YoY - October 2026". 6.8%+ leads at 26.9%. Next is 6.5% at 16.1%. $10K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 14, 2026.

This is a market about the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending in October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Producer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/ppi/), currently scheduled to be released on November 13, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS PPI news release, which reports PPI over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 6.0%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. This market resolves on the total PPI for final demand figure, not the core PPI figure excluding food and energy. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next PPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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