The Prediction Markets

Precipitation in Hong Kong in November?

Closes
Feb 8, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

60-95mm 28.3%

Next is 35-60mm at 21.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

60-95mm 28.3%35-60mm 21.3%25-35mm 20.2%5mm 11.6%95mm+ 8.5%2 others 10.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
60-95mm
28.3%
Polymarket 36.5%(28.3% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-95mm
Last price
36.5%
Fair, margin removed
28.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Polymarket
35-60mm
21.3%
Polymarket 27.5%(21.3% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
35-60mm
Last price
27.5%
Fair, margin removed
21.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
25-35mm
20.2%
Polymarket 26%(20.2% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
25-35mm
Last price
26%
Fair, margin removed
20.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$256
Trade this on Polymarket
5mm
11.6%
Polymarket 15%(11.6% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
5mm
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
11.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
95mm+
8.5%
Polymarket 11%(8.5% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
95mm+
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Polymarket
5-10mm
5.8%
Polymarket 7.5%(5.8% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
5-10mm
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket
10-25mm
4.3%
Polymarket 5.5%(4.3% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
10-25mm
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 60-95mm
  • 35-60mm
  • 25-35mm

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Precipitation in Hong Kong in November?". 60-95mm leads at 28.3%. Next is 35-60mm at 21.3%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 8, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between November 1 and November 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in November 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the relevant data is not available by February 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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