The Prediction Markets

Precipitation in London in November?

Closes
Feb 8, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

30mm 44.5%

Next is 100mm+ at 25.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
30mm
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
30mm
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
100mm+
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
100mm+
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$263
Trade this on Polymarket
40-50mm
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-50mm
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Polymarket
60-75mm
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-75mm
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Polymarket
75-100mm
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
75-100mm
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Polymarket
50-60mm
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
50-60mm
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$179
Trade this on Polymarket
30-40mm
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
30-40mm
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$139
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 30mm
  • 100mm+
  • 40-50mm

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Precipitation in London in November?". 30mm leads at 44.5%. Next is 100mm+ at 25.5%. $1K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 8, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in November, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for November 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of November 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by February 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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