The Prediction Markets

Precipitation in London in October?

Closes
Jan 8, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$38K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

70-85mm 38.7%

Next is 85-110mm at 31.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

70-85mm 38.7%85-110mm 31.7%60-70mm 13.2%110mm+ 10.8%35-45mm 2.2%2 others 3.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
70-85mm
38.7%
Polymarket 49.3%(38.8% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
70-85mm
Last price
49.3%
Fair, margin removed
38.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
42.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
85-110mm
31.7%
Polymarket 40.3%(31.7% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 49.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $201 (2.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
85-110mm
Last price
40.3%
Fair, margin removed
31.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49.8¢
Sell Yes
30.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$201 (2.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
60-70mm
13.2%
Polymarket 16.8%(13.2% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 32.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $307 (3.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-70mm
Last price
16.8%
Fair, margin removed
13.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$307 (3.07x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
110mm+
10.8%
Polymarket 13.7%(10.8% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 16.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $592 (5.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
110mm+
Last price
13.7%
Fair, margin removed
10.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.9¢
Sell Yes
10.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$592 (5.92x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
35-45mm
2.2%
Polymarket 2.8%(2.2% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
35-45mm
Last price
2.8%
Fair, margin removed
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
35mm
2.2%
Polymarket 2.9%(2.2% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
35mm
Last price
2.9%
Fair, margin removed
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
45-60mm
1.2%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
45-60mm
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 70-85mm
  • 85-110mm
  • 60-70mm

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Precipitation in London in October?". 70-85mm leads at 38.7%. Next is 85-110mm at 31.7%. $38K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in October, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for October 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of October 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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