The Prediction Markets

Precipitation in Seattle in October?

Closes
Jan 8, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

1.75" 74.5%

Next is 1.75-2.5" at 19.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

1.75" 74.5%1.75-2.5" 19.9%2.5-3" 2.4%3-3.75" 2%3.75-4.75" 0.6%2 others 0.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
1.75"
74.5%
Polymarket 78.5%(74.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.75"
Last price
78.5%
Fair, margin removed
74.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.75-2.5"
19.9%
Polymarket 21%(19.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.75-2.5"
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
19.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5-3"
2.4%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5-3"
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
3-3.75"
2%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3-3.75"
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.75-4.75"
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.75-4.75"
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.75-6"
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.75-6"
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
6"
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
6"
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1.75"
  • 1.75-2.5"
  • 2.5-3"

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Precipitation in Seattle in October?". 1.75" leads at 74.5%. Next is 1.75-2.5" at 19.9%. $35K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between October 1 and October 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for October 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of October 2026. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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