The Prediction Markets

Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$7.3M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

50M 98.3%

Next is 100M at 98.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
50M
98.3%
Polymarket 98.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 98.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
50M
Last price
98.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.6¢
Sell Yes
97.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$730K
Trade this on Polymarket
100M
98.3%
Polymarket 98.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
100M
Last price
98.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
97.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$577K
Trade this on Polymarket
200M
96.6%
Polymarket 96.6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
200M
Last price
96.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
300M
94.5%
Polymarket 94.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
300M
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
400M
91.5%
Polymarket 91.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
400M
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$912K
Trade this on Polymarket
500M
88.5%
Polymarket 88.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
500M
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$822K
Trade this on Polymarket
600M
85.5%
Polymarket 85.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
600M
Last price
85.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$397K
Trade this on Polymarket
800M
77%
Polymarket 77%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
800M
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$333K
Trade this on Polymarket
1B
58.9%
Polymarket 58.9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 59.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $168 (1.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
1B
Last price
58.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59.6¢
Sell Yes
58.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$168 (1.68x)
Volume
$613K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5B
37.9%
Polymarket 37.9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 38.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $257 (2.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5B
Last price
37.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38.9¢
Sell Yes
36.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$257 (2.57x)
Volume
$159K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
2B
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 29.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $334 (3.34x)
Polymarket
Contract
2B
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29.9¢
Sell Yes
29.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$334 (3.34x)
Volume
$334K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5B
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5B
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3B
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3B
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: predict.fun

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 50M
  • 100M
  • 200M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?". 50M leads at 98.3%. Next is 100M at 98.3%. $7.3M has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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