The Prediction Markets

PRESS PLAY: First Week Streams

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1M 99%

Next is Above 3M at 97.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3M
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3M
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4M
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4M
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2M
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2M
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5M
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5M
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6M
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6M
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8M
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8M
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10M
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10M
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12M
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12M
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$419
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14M
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14M
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 18M
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18M
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20M
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20M
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$953
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16M
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16M
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1M
  • Above 3M
  • Above 4M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "PRESS PLAY: First Week Streams". Above 1M leads at 99%. Next is Above 3M at 97.5%. $6K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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