The Prediction Markets

Prime Minister of Greece after the next election?

Closes
Jul 25, 2028, in 21 months
Traded
$45K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Kyriakos Mitsotakis 70.6%

Next is Alexis Tsipras at 7%. The venues differ most on Kyriakos Mitsotakis (Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 73%), a 8.5-point gap.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis 70.6%Alexis Tsipras 7%Dimitris Koutsoumbas 2.4%Nikos Androulakis 2.1%Kyriakos Velopoulos 2%9 others 15.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kyriakos MitsotakisArb
70.6%
Polymarket 64.5%(68.6% fair)polled, 60s agoKalshi 73%(73.9% fair)polled, 60s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kyriakos Mitsotakis
Last price
64.5%
Fair, margin removed
68.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kyriakos Mitsotakis
Last price
73%
Fair, margin removed
73.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 66¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Alexis Tsipras
7%
Polymarket 8.4%(8.9% fair)polled, 60s agoKalshi 4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexis Tsipras
Last price
8.4%
Fair, margin removed
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
7.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexis Tsipras
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

Dimitris Koutsoumbas
2.4%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dimitris Koutsoumbas
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Polymarket
Nikos Androulakis
2.1%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 60s agoKalshi 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikos Androulakis
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nikos Androulakis
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.7¢.

Kyriakos Velopoulos
2%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 60s agoKalshi 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kyriakos Velopoulos
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$757
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kyriakos Velopoulos
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.4¢.

Giannis Antetokounmpo
2%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kostis Hatzidakis
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kostis Hatzidakis
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kyriakos Pierrakakis
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kyriakos Pierrakakis
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nikos Dendias
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nikos Dendias
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Maria Karystianou
1.9%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 60s agoKalshi 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maria Karystianou
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maria Karystianou
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.7¢.

Show 4 more outcomes
Stefanos Kasselakis
1.8%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stefanos Kasselakis
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$762
Trade this on Polymarket
Afroditi Latinopoulou
1.7%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Afroditi Latinopoulou
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$947
Trade this on Polymarket
Zoe Konstantopoulou
1.3%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 60s agoKalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zoe Konstantopoulou
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zoe Konstantopoulou
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Yanis Varoufakis
1.2%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yanis Varoufakis
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Polymarket at 66¢, sell on Kalshi at 70¢ (400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Deadlines differ: Kalshi needs the person to take office and meet constitutional requirements before its own date (e.g. Oct 27, 2027 for Israel); Polymarket waits for a swearing-in until its date (e.g. Dec 31, 2027), then resolves to 'Other'. A government formed between the two dates splits them.
  • Kalshi counts becoming Prime Minister 'as a result of government formation' after the election; Polymarket requires a formal swearing-in (some events: a confidence vote) and excludes interim or caretaker leaders. An incumbent staying on as caretaker is No on both until a new government forms.
  • If an early election is called, Polymarket resolves on that election; Kalshi's 'next election' wording does the same, but its stated-year events (e.g. 'after the 2026 election') may not.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jul 26, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jul 25, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: President of the Hellenic Republic
Show full rule comparison
  • Deadlines differ: Kalshi needs the person to take office and meet constitutional requirements before its own date (e.g. Oct 27, 2027 for Israel); Polymarket waits for a swearing-in until its date (e.g. Dec 31, 2027), then resolves to 'Other'. A government formed between the two dates splits them.
  • Kalshi counts becoming Prime Minister 'as a result of government formation' after the election; Polymarket requires a formal swearing-in (some events: a confidence vote) and excludes interim or caretaker leaders. An incumbent staying on as caretaker is No on both until a new government forms.
  • If an early election is called, Polymarket resolves on that election; Kalshi's 'next election' wording does the same, but its stated-year events (e.g. 'after the 2026 election') may not.
  • Trading closes Jul 26, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jul 25, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kyriakos Mitsotakis
  • Alexis Tsipras
  • Dimitris Koutsoumbas

Live prices for Kyriakos Mitsotakis

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Prime Minister of Greece after the next election?". Kyriakos Mitsotakis leads at 70.6%. Next is Alexis Tsipras at 7%. $45K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 25, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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