The Prediction Markets

Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$149K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

Magdalena Andersson 76.5%

Next is Ulf Kristersson at 18.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Magdalena Andersson 76.5%Ulf Kristersson 18.6%Ebba Busch 3.9%Jimmie Åkesson 1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Magdalena Andersson
76.5%
Kalshi 78%(76.5% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Magdalena Andersson
Last price
78%
Fair, margin removed
76.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ulf Kristersson
18.6%
Kalshi 19%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ulf Kristersson
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$86K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ebba Busch
3.9%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ebba Busch
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jimmie Åkesson
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jimmie Åkesson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Riksdag

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Magdalena Andersson
  • Ulf Kristersson
  • Ebba Busch

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election?". Magdalena Andersson leads at 76.5%. Next is Ulf Kristersson at 18.6%. $149K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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