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What the markets expect
Nacional 50%
Next is Casa Pia at 49.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Nacional50%50%49¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 33s ago51¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $196 (1.96x)Nacional50%Polymarket 50%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Nacional
50%
50%
49¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
51¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Nacional
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nacional
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $977
Casa Pia49.5%49.5%49¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 33s ago50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Casa Pia49.5%Polymarket 49.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Casa Pia
49.5%
49.5%
49¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Casa Pia
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Casa Pia
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
- Volume
- $3K
Rio Ave39.5%39.5%39¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 33s ago40¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $250 (2.50x)Rio Ave39.5%Polymarket 39.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Rio Ave
39.5%
39.5%
39¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
40¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Rio Ave
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rio Ave
- Last price
- 39.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $2K
Estoril Praia36%36%35¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 33s ago37¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Estoril Praia36%Polymarket 36%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Estoril Praia
36%
36%
35¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
37¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Estoril Praia
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Estoril Praia
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $1K
Moreirense26.5%26.5%5¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 33s ago48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Moreirense26.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Moreirense
26.5%
26.5%
5¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Moreirense
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Moreirense
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
Marítimo20.5%20.5%19¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 33s ago22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Marítimo20.5%Polymarket 20.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Marítimo
20.5%
20.5%
19¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Marítimo
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Marítimo
- Last price
- 20.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $2K
Braga15.5%15.5%11.3¢ bid, 19.6¢ askpolled, 33s ago19.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $510 (5.10x)Braga15.5%Polymarket 15.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 19.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $510 (5.10x)
Braga
15.5%
15.5%
11.3¢ bid, 19.6¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
19.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $510 (5.10x)
Braga
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 19.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $510 (5.10x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Braga
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 11.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $510 (5.10x)
- Volume
- $1K
Estrela da Amadora6%6%2.2¢ bid, 9.7¢ askpolled, 33s ago9.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)Estrela da Amadora6%Polymarket 6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Estrela da Amadora
6%
6%
2.2¢ bid, 9.7¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
9.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Estrela da Amadora
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Estrela da Amadora
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,031 (10.3x)
Famalicão4.8%4.8%1.3¢ bid, 8.3¢ askpolled, 33s ago8.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)Famalicão4.8%Polymarket 4.8%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Famalicão
4.8%
4.8%
1.3¢ bid, 8.3¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
8.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Famalicão
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Famalicão
- Last price
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,205 (12.0x)
Vitória de Guimarães4.8%4.8%2.9¢ bid, 6.6¢ askpolled, 33s ago6.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)Vitória de Guimarães4.8%Polymarket 4.8%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Vitória de Guimarães
4.8%
4.8%
2.9¢ bid, 6.6¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
6.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Vitória de Guimarães
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Vitória de Guimarães
- Last price
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,515 (15.2x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 8 more outcomesHide 8 outcomes
Académico de Viseu4.6%4.6%3.1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 33s ago6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Académico de Viseu4.6%Polymarket 4.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Académico de Viseu
4.6%
4.6%
3.1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Académico de Viseu
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Académico de Viseu
- Last price
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $40
Arouca3.5%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 33s ago6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Arouca3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Arouca
3.5%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Arouca
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Arouca
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $72
Gil Vicente3.5%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 33s ago6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Gil Vicente3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Gil Vicente
3.5%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Gil Vicente
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gil Vicente
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $85
Benfica3.5%3.5%2.1¢ bid, 4.8¢ askpolled, 33s ago4.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)Benfica3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Benfica
3.5%
3.5%
2.1¢ bid, 4.8¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
4.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Benfica
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Benfica
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $150
Santa Clara3.3%3.3%1.5¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 33s ago5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Santa Clara3.3%Polymarket 3.3%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Santa Clara
3.3%
3.3%
1.5¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Santa Clara
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Santa Clara
- Last price
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Porto2.6%2.6%0.2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 33s ago5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Porto2.6%Polymarket 2.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Porto
2.6%
2.6%
0.2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Porto
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Porto
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $829
Alverca2.6%2.6%1.1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 33s ago4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Alverca2.6%Polymarket 2.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Alverca
2.6%
2.6%
1.1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Alverca
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alverca
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $164
Sporting CP2.3%2.3%1¢ bid, 3.6¢ askpolled, 33s ago3.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)Sporting CP2.3%Polymarket 2.3%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Sporting CP
2.3%
2.3%
1¢ bid, 3.6¢ ask
polled, 33s ago
3.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Sporting CP
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sporting CP
- Last price
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,778 (27.8x)
- Volume
- $35
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Nacional
- Casa Pia
- Rio Ave
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Primeira Liga: Teams relegated (2026-27)". Nacional leads at 50%. Next is Casa Pia at 49.5%. $13K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from Primeira Liga at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Primeira Liga season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Official relegation is defined as a team losing its place in Primeira Liga for the following season through their final standing in the 2026-27 Primeira Liga, via relegation playoff defeat, or by any other official league decision recognized by Primeira Liga. If the 2026-27 Primeira Liga season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for relegation within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Primeira Liga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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