The Prediction Markets

Pro Baseball Home Run Derby Selections

Closed
Jul 14, 2026
Traded
$18K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 14, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Kyle Schwarber
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kyle Schwarber
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$346
Trade this on Kalshi
Yordan Alvarez
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yordan Alvarez
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Kalshi
Ben Rice
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Rice
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$935
Trade this on Kalshi
Bryce Harper
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bryce Harper
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Wood
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Wood
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Kalshi
Bobby Witt Jr.
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bobby Witt Jr.
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$328
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Buxton
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Buxton
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Kalshi
Junior Caminero
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Junior Caminero
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Shea Langeliers
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shea Langeliers
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Gunnar Henderson
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gunnar Henderson
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 23 more outcomes
Matt Olson
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Olson
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$656
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Trout
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Trout
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$838
Trade this on Kalshi
Jordan Walker
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Walker
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$873
Trade this on Kalshi
Max Muncy (LAD)
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Max Muncy (LAD)
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$533
Trade this on Kalshi
Miguel Vargas
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miguel Vargas
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Alonso
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Alonso
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Kalshi
Hunter Goodman
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hunter Goodman
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$787
Trade this on Kalshi
Julio Rodriguez
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Julio Rodriguez
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Kalshi
Munetaka Murakami
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Munetaka Murakami
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$517
Trade this on Kalshi
Ian Happ
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ian Happ
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Kalshi
Ronald Acuña Jr.
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ronald Acuña Jr.
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$922
Trade this on Kalshi
Dillon Dingler
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dillon Dingler
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Juan Soto
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Juan Soto
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$84
Trade this on Kalshi
Christian Walker
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christian Walker
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Pages
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Pages
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Kalshi
Brandon Lowe
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Lowe
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Colson Montgomery
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colson Montgomery
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Kalshi
Oneil Cruz
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oneil Cruz
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Luke Raley
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luke Raley
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Harris
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Harris
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Kalshi
Drake Baldwin
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drake Baldwin
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Shohei Ohtani
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shohei Ohtani
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$760
Trade this on Kalshi
Aaron Judge
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3029 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aaron Judge
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kyle Schwarber
  • Yordan Alvarez
  • Ben Rice

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Pro Baseball Home Run Derby Selections". Kyle Schwarber last traded at 85%. Next is Yordan Alvarez at 69%. $18K has traded across 33 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 14, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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