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What the markets expect
Craig Counsell 97%
Next is Joe Espada at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Craig Counsell97%97%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 52s ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Craig Counsell97%Kalshi 97%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Craig Counsell
97%
97%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Craig Counsell
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Craig Counsell
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $4K
Joe Espada90%90%90¢ bid, — askpolled, 52s agoNo askJoe Espada90%Kalshi 90%polled, 52s ago
Joe Espada
90%
90%
90¢ bid, — ask
polled, 52s ago
No ask
Joe Espada
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 52s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joe Espada
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 90¢
- Volume
- $5K
Kurt Suzuki55%55%55¢ bid, — askpolled, 52s agoNo askKurt Suzuki55%Kalshi 55%polled, 52s ago
Kurt Suzuki
55%
55%
55¢ bid, — ask
polled, 52s ago
No ask
Kurt Suzuki
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 52s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kurt Suzuki
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- Volume
- $2K
Derek Shelton50.5%50.5%3¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 52s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Derek Shelton50.5%Kalshi 50.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Derek Shelton
50.5%
50.5%
3¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Derek Shelton
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Derek Shelton
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Don Kelly50.5%50.5%3¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 52s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Don Kelly50.5%Kalshi 50.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Don Kelly
50.5%
50.5%
3¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Don Kelly
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Don Kelly
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Skip Schumaker50.5%50.5%3¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 52s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Skip Schumaker50.5%Kalshi 50.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Skip Schumaker
50.5%
50.5%
3¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Skip Schumaker
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Skip Schumaker
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Walt Weiss50.5%50.5%3¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 52s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Walt Weiss50.5%Kalshi 50.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Walt Weiss
50.5%
50.5%
3¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Walt Weiss
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Walt Weiss
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Aaron Boone38%38%— bid, 38¢ askpolled, 52s ago38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Aaron Boone38%Kalshi 38%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Aaron Boone
38%
38%
— bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Aaron Boone
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aaron Boone
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $3K
A.J. Hinch34%34%3¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 52s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)A.J. Hinch34%Kalshi 34%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
A.J. Hinch
34%
34%
3¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
A.J. Hinch
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- A.J. Hinch
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $1K
Mark Kotsay30%30%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 52s ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Mark Kotsay30%Kalshi 30%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Mark Kotsay
30%
30%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Mark Kotsay
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mark Kotsay
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $557
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Terry Francona25%25%3¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 52s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Terry Francona25%Kalshi 25%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Terry Francona
25%
25%
3¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Terry Francona
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Terry Francona
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $26
Matt Quatraro20%20%2¢ bid, 74¢ askpolled, 52s ago74¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $135 (1.35x)Matt Quatraro20%Kalshi 20%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Matt Quatraro
20%
20%
2¢ bid, 74¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
74¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Matt Quatraro
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Matt Quatraro
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
- Volume
- $2K
Dave Roberts15%15%— bid, 15¢ askpolled, 52s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Dave Roberts15%Kalshi 15%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Dave Roberts
15%
15%
— bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Dave Roberts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dave Roberts
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $2K
Pat Murphy15%15%3¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 52s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Pat Murphy15%Kalshi 15%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Pat Murphy
15%
15%
3¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Pat Murphy
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pat Murphy
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $853
Warren Schaeffer14%14%3¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 52s ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)Warren Schaeffer14%Kalshi 14%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Warren Schaeffer
14%
14%
3¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Warren Schaeffer
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Warren Schaeffer
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $655
Clayton McCullough7%7%3¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 52s ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Clayton McCullough7%Kalshi 7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Clayton McCullough
7%
7%
3¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Clayton McCullough
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Clayton McCullough
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $468
John Schneider7%7%3¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 52s ago30¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $333 (3.33x)John Schneider7%Kalshi 7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
John Schneider
7%
7%
3¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
30¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
John Schneider
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- John Schneider
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $630
Oliver Marmol7%7%3¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 52s ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Oliver Marmol7%Kalshi 7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Oliver Marmol
7%
7%
3¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Oliver Marmol
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oliver Marmol
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $647
Tony Vitello4%4%4¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 52s ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Tony Vitello4%Kalshi 4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Tony Vitello
4%
4%
4¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Tony Vitello
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tony Vitello
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $10K
Craig Albernaz3%3%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 52s ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Craig Albernaz3%Kalshi 3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Craig Albernaz
3%
3%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Craig Albernaz
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Craig Albernaz
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $108
Craig Stammen3%3%3¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 52s ago75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Craig Stammen3%Kalshi 3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Craig Stammen
3%
3%
3¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Craig Stammen
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Craig Stammen
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $24
Stephen Vogt3%3%3¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 52s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Stephen Vogt3%Kalshi 3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Stephen Vogt
3%
3%
3¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Stephen Vogt
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Stephen Vogt
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $453
Kevin Cash2%2%2¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 52s ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Kevin Cash2%Kalshi 2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kevin Cash
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kevin Cash
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kevin Cash
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $155
Torey Lovullo2%2%No order bookpolled, 52s agoNo askTorey Lovullo2%Kalshi 2%polled, 52s ago
Torey Lovullo
2%
2%
No order book
polled, 52s ago
No ask
Torey Lovullo
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 52s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Torey Lovullo
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $8K
Blake Butera1%1%— bid, 11¢ askpolled, 52s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Blake Butera1%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Blake Butera
1%
1%
— bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Blake Butera
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Blake Butera
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $2K
Chicago WS1%1%1¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, 52s ago84¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $119 (1.19x)Chicago WS1%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Chicago WS
1%
1%
1¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
84¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Chicago WS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chicago WS
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, CBS Sports, ESPN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Craig Counsell
- Joe Espada
- Kurt Suzuki
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Pro Baseball: Managers Out". Craig Counsell leads at 97%. Next is Joe Espada at 90%. $47K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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