The Prediction Markets

Pro Basketball #1 Overall Pick in 2027

Closes
Jul 8, 2027, in 9 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Tyran Stokes 40.7%

Next is Jordan Smith Jr. at 11.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Tyran Stokes 40.7%Jordan Smith Jr. 11.2%Bruce Branch III 9.5%Caleb Holt 6.9%Thomas Haugh 6.9%10 others 24.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Tyran Stokes
40.7%
Kalshi 47%(40.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyran Stokes
Last price
47%
Fair, margin removed
40.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jordan Smith Jr.
11.2%
Kalshi 13%(11.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Smith Jr.
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
11.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bruce Branch III
9.5%
Kalshi 11%(9.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bruce Branch III
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi
Caleb Holt
6.9%
Kalshi 8%(6.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Holt
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Thomas Haugh
6.9%
Kalshi 8%(6.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Haugh
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Baba Oladotun
3.5%
Kalshi 4%(3.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baba Oladotun
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Kalshi
Colben Landrew
3.5%
Kalshi 4%(3.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colben Landrew
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$817
Trade this on Kalshi
Hugo Yimga-Moukouri
3.5%
Kalshi 4%(3.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hugo Yimga-Moukouri
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Braylon Mullins
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Braylon Mullins
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Kalshi
Cameron Williams
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cameron Williams
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$876
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Patrick Ngongba II
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Ngongba II
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Motiejus Krivas
2.2%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Motiejus Krivas
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Amari Allen
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amari Allen
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dylan Mingo
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dylan Mingo
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brandon McCoy
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon McCoy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tyran Stokes
  • Jordan Smith Jr.
  • Bruce Branch III

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Basketball #1 Overall Pick in 2027". Tyran Stokes leads at 40.7%. Next is Jordan Smith Jr. at 11.2%. $8K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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