The Prediction Markets

Pro Basketball Best Regular Season Record

Closes
May 31, 2027, in 7 months
Traded
$46K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Oklahoma City 41%

Next is Sacramento Kings at 36.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Oklahoma City
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, just nowBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oklahoma City
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sacramento Kings
36.8%
Polymarket 36.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $235 (2.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sacramento Kings
Last price
36.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42.5¢
Sell Yes
31.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$235 (2.35x)
Volume
$379
Trade this on Polymarket
San Antonio
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Antonio
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Milwaukee Bucks
17.2%
Polymarket 17.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Milwaukee Bucks
Last price
17.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$735
Trade this on Polymarket
Minnesota Timberwolves
15.8%
Polymarket 15.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last price
15.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Toronto Raptors
15.8%
Polymarket 15.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toronto Raptors
Last price
15.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Denver Nuggets
15.7%
Polymarket 15.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denver Nuggets
Last price
15.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Detroit Pistons
15.7%
Polymarket 15.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Detroit Pistons
Last price
15.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Houston Rockets
15.7%
Polymarket 15.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Houston Rockets
Last price
15.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Los Angeles Lakers
15.7%
Polymarket 15.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Los Angeles Lakers
Last price
15.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 50 more outcomes
Miami Heat
15.7%
Polymarket 15.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miami Heat
Last price
15.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
New York Knicks
15.7%
Polymarket 15.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
New York Knicks
Last price
15.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Oklahoma City Thunder
15.7%
Polymarket 15.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oklahoma City Thunder
Last price
15.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Philadelphia 76ers
15.7%
Polymarket 15.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philadelphia 76ers
Last price
15.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Portland Trail Blazers
15.7%
Polymarket 15.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Portland Trail Blazers
Last price
15.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Indiana Pacers
15.6%
Polymarket 15.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Indiana Pacers
Last price
15.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Cleveland Cavaliers
15.1%
Polymarket 15.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last price
15.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Orlando Magic
15.1%
Polymarket 15.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orlando Magic
Last price
15.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Brooklyn Nets
12.9%
Polymarket 12.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brooklyn Nets
Last price
12.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
12.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Volume
$478
Trade this on Polymarket
Boston Celtics
11.8%
Polymarket 11.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $426 (4.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boston Celtics
Last price
11.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$426 (4.26x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Los Angeles Clippers
10.4%
Polymarket 10.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $485 (4.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Los Angeles Clippers
Last price
10.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$485 (4.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
San Antonio Spurs
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $503 (5.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
San Antonio Spurs
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$503 (5.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
New Orleans Pelicans
9.2%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $549 (5.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Orleans Pelicans
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$549 (5.49x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Memphis Grizzlies
8.7%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $581 (5.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
Memphis Grizzlies
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$581 (5.81x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
Golden State Warriors
8.1%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $621 (6.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
Golden State Warriors
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$621 (6.21x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Washington Wizards
7.8%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $654 (6.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Washington Wizards
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$654 (6.54x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dallas Mavericks
7.2%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dallas Mavericks
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Minnesota
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Philadelphia
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Philadelphia
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Charlotte Hornets
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlotte Hornets
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Phoenix Suns
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phoenix Suns
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Atlanta Hawks
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $826 (8.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atlanta Hawks
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$826 (8.26x)
Trade this on Polymarket
New York
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
New York
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Boston
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Boston
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Los Angeles L
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles L
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Toronto
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toronto
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$782
Trade this on Kalshi
Utah Jazz
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Utah Jazz
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Chicago Bulls
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chicago Bulls
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$595
Trade this on Polymarket
Cleveland
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cleveland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$758
Trade this on Kalshi
Denver
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denver
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$639
Trade this on Kalshi
Detroit
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Detroit
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Houston
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Houston
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Indiana
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indiana
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$727
Trade this on Kalshi
Atlanta
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Atlanta
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden State
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden State
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miami
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miami
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Orlando
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Orlando
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Phoenix
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phoenix
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Portland
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Portland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Utah
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Utah
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$935
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Washington
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Brooklyn
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brooklyn
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Charlotte
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charlotte
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chicago
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chicago
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dallas
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dallas
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Los Angeles C
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles C
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Memphis
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Memphis
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Milwaukee
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Milwaukee
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
New Orleans
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Orleans
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sacramento
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sacramento
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Oklahoma City
  • Sacramento Kings
  • San Antonio

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Oklahoma City for this event.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Basketball Best Regular Season Record". Oklahoma City leads at 41%. Next is Sacramento Kings at 36.8%. $46K has traded across 60 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by May 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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