The Prediction Markets

Pro Basketball Most Improved Player Winner

Closes
Jul 8, 2027, in 9 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ty Jerome 27.6%

Next is Naz Reid at 20.7%. The venues differ most on Alex Sarr (Polymarket 17.3%, Kalshi 1%), a 16-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ty Jerome
27.6%
Polymarket 23.3%polled, 18s agoKalshi 29%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ty Jerome
Last price
23.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30.5¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$328 (3.28x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ty Jerome
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 26¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 30.5¢.

Naz Reid
20.7%
Polymarket 13.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 23%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 21.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $461 (4.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Naz Reid
Last price
13.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.7¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$461 (4.61x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Naz Reid
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21.7¢.

Dylan Harper
16.7%
Polymarket 12.8%polled, 18s agoKalshi 18%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 14.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dylan Harper
Last price
12.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.5¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$690 (6.90x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dylan Harper
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14.5¢.

Jonathan Kuminga
10.8%
Polymarket 10.4%polled, 18s agoKalshi 11%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jonathan Kuminga
Last price
10.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$485 (4.85x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jonathan Kuminga
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Egor Demin
9.8%
Polymarket 9.8%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 13.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $758 (7.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
Egor Demin
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.2¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$758 (7.58x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
Walker Kessler
8.8%
Polymarket 11.1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 8%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Walker Kessler
Last price
11.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$457 (4.57x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Walker Kessler
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$569
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Jaden McDaniels
7.9%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaden McDaniels
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$478 (4.78x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jaden McDaniels
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Cedric Coward
7.5%
Polymarket 15.1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cedric Coward
Last price
15.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cedric Coward
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Ausar Thompson
7%
Polymarket 16.1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amen Thompson
Last price
16.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amen Thompson
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Ausar Thompson
7%
Polymarket 12.9%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ausar Thompson
Last price
12.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ausar Thompson
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Show 38 more outcomes
Payton Pritchard
6.6%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 18s agoKalshi 6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Payton Pritchard
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Payton Pritchard
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$291
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Scoot Henderson
6.3%
Polymarket 10%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scoot Henderson
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$505 (5.05x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scoot Henderson
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$332
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Ajay Mitchell
6.1%
Polymarket 12.6%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ajay Mitchell
Last price
12.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ajay Mitchell
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$333
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Cason Wallace
5.3%
Polymarket 12.1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cason Wallace
Last price
12.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cason Wallace
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Collin Murray-Boyles
5.3%
Polymarket 12.1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Collin Murray-Boyles
Last price
12.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Collin Murray-Boyles
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Alex Sarr
5.1%
Polymarket 17.3%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Sarr
Last price
17.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$291 (2.91x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Sarr
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Leonard Miller
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leonard Miller
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$164
Trade this on Kalshi
Matas Buzelis
4.9%
Polymarket 10.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matas Buzelis
Last price
10.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$478 (4.78x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matas Buzelis
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Davion Mitchell
4.8%
Polymarket 16.3%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Davion Mitchell
Last price
16.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$309 (3.09x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Davion Mitchell
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Brandon MillerArb
4.8%
Polymarket 9%polled, 18s agoKalshi 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brandon Miller
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.6¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$794 (7.94x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Miller
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$577
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5.4¢ nets 240 bps before fees.

Peyton Watson
4.5%
Polymarket 12.1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peyton Watson
Last price
12.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Peyton Watson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Coby White
4.5%
Polymarket 15%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Coby White
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Coby White
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Zach Edey
4.2%
Polymarket 10.8%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zach Edey
Last price
10.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$467 (4.67x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zach Edey
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Jabari Smith Jr.
4.2%
Polymarket 13.6%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jabari Smith Jr.
Last price
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jabari Smith Jr.
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Sandro Mamukelashvili
4.2%
Polymarket 13.6%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Last price
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$369 (3.69x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$139
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Derik Queen
4%
Polymarket 13.1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Derik Queen
Last price
13.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Derik Queen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Kon Knueppel
3.9%
Polymarket 12.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kon Knueppel
Last price
12.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$398 (3.98x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kon Knueppel
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Pelle Larsson
3.9%
Polymarket 12.4%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pelle Larsson
Last price
12.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pelle Larsson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$291
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Joan Beringer
3.7%
Polymarket 11.6%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joan Beringer
Last price
11.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joan Beringer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Kel'el Ware
3.6%
Polymarket 8.2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kel'el Ware
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$613 (6.13x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kel'el Ware
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$397
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Donovan Clingan
3.5%
Polymarket 10.8%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donovan Clingan
Last price
10.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$467 (4.67x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Donovan Clingan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

Khaman Maluach
3.4%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khaman Maluach
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$658 (6.58x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Khaman Maluach
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Reed Sheppard
3.4%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reed Sheppard
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Reed Sheppard
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Paul Reed
2.8%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Reed
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$935 (9.35x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Reed
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Ousmane Dieng
2.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ousmane Dieng
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$806 (8.06x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ousmane Dieng
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Ayo Dosunmu
2.2%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ayo Dosunmu
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ayo Dosunmu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Toumani Camara
2.2%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toumani Camara
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Toumani Camara
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jalen Duren
2.1%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jalen Duren
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Duren
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jalen Johnson
2.1%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jalen Johnson
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Johnson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Egor Dëmin
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Egor Dëmin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Kalshi
Deni Avdija
1.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Deni Avdija
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Deni Avdija
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Keegan Murray
1.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keegan Murray
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Keegan Murray
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

VJ Edgecombe
1.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
VJ Edgecombe
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
VJ Edgecombe
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Aaron Wiggins
1.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Wiggins
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Aaron Wiggins
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Stephon Castle
1.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephon Castle
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stephon Castle
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ryan Rollins
1.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Rollins
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Rollins
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Terrence Shannon Jr.
1.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Terrence Shannon Jr.
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Terrence Shannon Jr.
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Keon Ellis
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keon Ellis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Brandon Miller on Kalshi at 3¢, sell on Polymarket at 5.4¢ (240 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jul 8, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ty Jerome
  • Naz Reid
  • Dylan Harper

Live prices for Ty Jerome

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Basketball Most Improved Player Winner". Ty Jerome leads at 27.6%. Next is Naz Reid at 20.7%. $23K has traded across 48 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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