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What the markets expect
Ben Simmons 50%
Next is Bismack Biyombo at 8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Ben Simmons50%50%No order bookpolled, just nowNo askBen Simmons50%Kalshi 50%polled, just now
Ben Simmons
50%
50%
No order book
polled, just now
No ask
Ben Simmons
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, just now
Bismack Biyombo8%8%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Bismack Biyombo8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Bismack Biyombo
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Bismack Biyombo
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bismack Biyombo
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $200
Cam Thomas8%8%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Cam Thomas8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Cam Thomas
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Cam Thomas
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cam Thomas
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $200
Dalton Knecht8%8%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Dalton Knecht8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Dalton Knecht
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Dalton Knecht
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dalton Knecht
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $200
Drew Timme8%8%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Drew Timme8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Drew Timme
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Drew Timme
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Drew Timme
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $200
Dwight Powell8%8%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Dwight Powell8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Dwight Powell
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Dwight Powell
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dwight Powell
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $200
Gabe Vincent8%8%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Gabe Vincent8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Gabe Vincent
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Gabe Vincent
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gabe Vincent
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $209
Gary Harris8%8%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Gary Harris8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Gary Harris
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Gary Harris
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gary Harris
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $200
Killian Hayes8%8%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Killian Hayes8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Killian Hayes
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Killian Hayes
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Killian Hayes
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $200
Ryan Nembhard8%8%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Ryan Nembhard8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Ryan Nembhard
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Ryan Nembhard
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Nembhard
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $200
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
Sharife Cooper8%8%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Sharife Cooper8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Sharife Cooper
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Sharife Cooper
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sharife Cooper
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $200
Doug McDermott4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Doug McDermott4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Doug McDermott
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Doug McDermott
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Doug McDermott
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Jeff Green4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Jeff Green4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Jeff Green
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Jeff Green
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jeff Green
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Joe Ingles4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Joe Ingles4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Joe Ingles
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Joe Ingles
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joe Ingles
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Jonas Valančiūnas4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Jonas Valančiūnas4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Jonas Valančiūnas
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Jonas Valančiūnas
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jonas Valančiūnas
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Kelly Olynyk4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Kelly Olynyk4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kelly Olynyk
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kelly Olynyk
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kelly Olynyk
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Kevin Love4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Kevin Love4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kevin Love
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kevin Love
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kevin Love
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Mac McClung4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Mac McClung4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Mac McClung
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Mac McClung
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mac McClung
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Markelle Fultz4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Markelle Fultz4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Markelle Fultz
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Markelle Fultz
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Markelle Fultz
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Mason Plumlee4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Mason Plumlee4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Mason Plumlee
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Mason Plumlee
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mason Plumlee
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Maxi Kleber4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Maxi Kleber4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Maxi Kleber
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Maxi Kleber
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maxi Kleber
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Nicolas Batum4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Nicolas Batum4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Nicolas Batum
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Nicolas Batum
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nicolas Batum
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Seth Curry4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Seth Curry4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Seth Curry
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Seth Curry
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Seth Curry
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Thanasis Antetokounmpo4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Thanasis Antetokounmpo4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Thanasis Antetokounmpo
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Thanasis Antetokounmpo
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Thanasis Antetokounmpo
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Yuki Kawamura4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Yuki Kawamura4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Yuki Kawamura
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Yuki Kawamura
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yuki Kawamura
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Sports Illustrated, the Governing League, Bleacher Report
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Ben Simmons
- Bismack Biyombo
- Cam Thomas
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Pro Basketball players sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027". Ben Simmons leads at 50%. Next is Bismack Biyombo at 8%. $2K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 8, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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