The Prediction Markets

Pro Basketball Rookie of the Year Winner

Closes
Jul 8, 2027, in 9 months
Traded
$9.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Cameron Boozer 22.4%

Next is Caleb Wilson at 17.1%. The venues differ most on Yaxel Lendeborg (Polymarket 9.8%, Kalshi 20%), a 10-point gap.

Cameron Boozer 22.4%Caleb Wilson 17.1%Yaxel Lendeborg 14.7%AJ Dybantsa 12.5%Darryn Peterson 11.6%26 others 21.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 47 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cameron Boozer
22.4%
Polymarket 27.5%(24.2% fair)live, just nowKalshi 26%(21.4% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cameron Boozer
Price
27.5%
Fair, margin removed
24.2%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cameron Boozer
Price
26%
Fair, margin removed
21.4%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$115K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 27¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 27¢.

Caleb Wilson
17.1%
Polymarket 20.5%(18% fair)polled, 31s agoKalshi 20%(16.5% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caleb Wilson
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Wilson
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$188K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 22¢.

Yaxel LendeborgArb
14.7%
Polymarket 9.8%(8.6% fair)polled, 31s agoKalshi 20%(16.5% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 11.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $862 (8.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yaxel Lendeborg
Last price
9.8%
Fair, margin removed
8.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.6¢
Sell Yes
7.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$862 (8.62x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yaxel Lendeborg
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$220K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 11.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 540 bps before fees.

AJ DybantsaArb
12.5%
Polymarket 17%(15% fair)polled, 31s agoKalshi 14%(11.5% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
AJ Dybantsa
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
AJ Dybantsa
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$94K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 15¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Darryn Peterson
11.6%
Polymarket 15.5%(13.6% fair)polled, 31s agoKalshi 13%(10.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Darryn Peterson
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Darryn Peterson
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
10.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$86K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Darius Acuff Jr.
6.9%
Polymarket 8.5%(7.5% fair)polled, 31s agoKalshi 8%(6.6% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Darius Acuff Jr.
Last price
8.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Darius Acuff Jr.
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$145K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Keaton Wagler
1.7%
Polymarket 2%polled, 31s agoKalshi 2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keaton Wagler
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Keaton Wagler
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$92K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.7¢.

Mikel Brown Jr.
1.7%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 31s agoKalshi 2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mikel Brown Jr.
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mikel Brown Jr.
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.8¢.

Aday Mara
1.5%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 31s agoKalshi 2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aday Mara
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Aday Mara
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$140K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Labaron Philon Jr.
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labaron Philon Jr.
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$324K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 21 more outcomes
Cameron Carr
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cameron Carr
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bennett Stirtz
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bennett Stirtz
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bennett Stirtz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Brayden Burries
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brayden Burries
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brayden Burries
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$130K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Sergio De Larrea
0.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio De Larrea
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tie/Co-Winners
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie/Co-Winners
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Morez Johnson Jr.
0.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Morez Johnson Jr.
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Morez Johnson Jr.
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ebuka Okorie
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ebuka Okorie
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Allen Graves
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Allen Graves
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$667K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hannes Steinbach
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hannes Steinbach
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hannes Steinbach
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Kingston Flemings
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kingston Flemings
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$285K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kingston Flemings
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Nate Ament
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nate Ament
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nate Ament
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Dailyn Swain
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dailyn Swain
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dailyn Swain
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$873
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Alex Karaban
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Karaban
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chris Cenac Jr.
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Cenac Jr.
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$481K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zuby Ejiofor
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zuby Ejiofor
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Christian Anderson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christian Anderson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$376K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jayden Quaintance
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jayden Quaintance
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$70K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joshua Jefferson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joshua Jefferson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$73K
Trade this on Polymarket
Karim López
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karim López
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Koa Peat
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Koa Peat
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tarris Reed Jr.
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tarris Reed Jr.
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Yaxel Lendeborg on Polymarket at 11.6¢, sell on Kalshi at 17¢ (540 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes May 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jul 8, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cameron Boozer
  • Caleb Wilson
  • Yaxel Lendeborg

Live prices for Cameron Boozer

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Basketball Rookie of the Year Winner". Cameron Boozer leads at 22.4%. Next is Caleb Wilson at 17.1%. $9.4M has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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