The Prediction Markets

Pro Basketball Three-Pointers Made Per Game (3PM) Leader

Closes
Jul 8, 2027, in 9 months
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Stephen Curry 31.9%

Next is Anthony Edwards at 29.3%. The venues differ most on Anthony Edwards (Polymarket 18.1%, Kalshi 33%), a 15-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Stephen CurryArb
31.9%
Polymarket 37.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 30%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Curry
Last price
37.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38.8¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$258 (2.58x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Curry
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 31¢ and selling on Polymarket at 36¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Anthony EdwardsArb
29.3%
Polymarket 18.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 33%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 23.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $424 (4.24x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Edwards
Last price
18.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23.6¢
Sell Yes
12.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$424 (4.24x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Edwards
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 23.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 26¢ nets 240 bps before fees.

Luka Dončić
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luka Dončić
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Luka Doncic
12.3%
Polymarket 12.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $575 (5.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luka Doncic
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17.4¢
Sell Yes
7.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$575 (5.75x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Polymarket
LaMelo Ball
9.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
LaMelo Ball
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
LaMelo Ball
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$683
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8.2¢.

Kon Knueppel
6.1%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kon Knueppel
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kon Knueppel
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.7¢.

Damian Lillard
3.9%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Damian Lillard
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Damian Lillard
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker
3.1%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$806 (8.06x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$771
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Grayson Allen
2.8%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Grayson Allen
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Grayson Allen
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Moses Moody
2.6%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moses Moody
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Moses Moody
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Show 44 more outcomes
Isaiah Joe
2.5%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isaiah Joe
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Isaiah Joe
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jrue Holiday
2.5%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jrue Holiday
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jrue Holiday
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jayson Tatum
2.3%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jayson Tatum
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jayson Tatum
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Ty Jerome
2.3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ty Jerome
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ty Jerome
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$907
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Paul George
2.1%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul George
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paul George
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$563
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Kyrie Irving
1.9%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kyrie Irving
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kyrie Irving
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Anfernee Simons
1.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anfernee Simons
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anfernee Simons
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Fred VanVleet
1.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fred VanVleet
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fred VanVleet
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Immanuel Quickley
1.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Immanuel Quickley
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Immanuel Quickley
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Quentin Grimes
1.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Quentin Grimes
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Quentin Grimes
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ryan Rollins
1.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Rollins
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Rollins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Sam Hauser
1.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Hauser
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Hauser
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tyrese Haliburton
1.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyrese Haliburton
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyrese Haliburton
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Cam Thomas
1.8%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cam Thomas
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cam Thomas
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Darryn Peterson
1.8%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Darryn Peterson
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Darryn Peterson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Duncan Robinson
1.8%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Duncan Robinson
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Duncan Robinson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Payton Pritchard
1.6%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Payton Pritchard
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Payton Pritchard
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Reed Sheppard
1.6%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reed Sheppard
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Reed Sheppard
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$911
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Tyrese Maxey
1.6%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyrese Maxey
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyrese Maxey
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Derrick White
1.6%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Derrick White
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Derrick White
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$561
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Donte DiVincenzo
1.6%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donte DiVincenzo
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Donte DiVincenzo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tyler Herro
1.6%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Herro
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Herro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$561
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Brandon Miller
1.5%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brandon Miller
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Miller
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

CJ McCollum
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
CJ McCollum
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
CJ McCollum
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Collin Gillespie
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Collin Gillespie
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Collin Gillespie
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Darius Garland
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Darius Garland
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Darius Garland
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Devin Vassell
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Devin Vassell
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Devin Vassell
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jamal Murray
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jamal Murray
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jamal Murray
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

James Harden
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Harden
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Harden
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jordan Poole
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Poole
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Poole
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Kawhi Leonard
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kawhi Leonard
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kawhi Leonard
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Kevin Durant
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kevin Durant
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Durant
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Klay Thompson
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Klay Thompson
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Klay Thompson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Michael Porter Jr.
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Porter Jr.
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Porter Jr.
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Miles McBride
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles McBride
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miles McBride
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Norman Powell
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Norman Powell
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Norman Powell
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Toumani Camara
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toumani Camara
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Toumani Camara
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Zach LaVine
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zach LaVine
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zach LaVine
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Donovan Mitchell
1.5%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donovan Mitchell
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Donovan Mitchell
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jalen Brunson
1.5%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jalen Brunson
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Brunson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Keyonte George
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keyonte George
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Keyonte George
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Lauri Markkanen
1.5%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lauri Markkanen
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lauri Markkanen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Trey Murphy III
1.5%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trey Murphy III
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Trey Murphy III
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Keaton Wagler
1.2%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keaton Wagler
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Keaton Wagler
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$897
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Stephen Curry on Kalshi at 31¢, sell on Polymarket at 36¢ (500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Apr 26, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jul 8, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Stephen Curry
  • Anthony Edwards
  • Luka Dončić

Live prices for Stephen Curry

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Basketball Three-Pointers Made Per Game (3PM) Leader". Stephen Curry leads at 31.9%. Next is Anthony Edwards at 29.3%. $31K has traded across 54 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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