The Prediction Markets

Pro Basketball Western Conference Champion

Closes
Jun 29, 2029, in 33 months
Traded
$1.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Oklahoma City 33.2%

Next is San Antonio at 30.4%. The venues differ most on Oklahoma City (Polymarket 34%, Kalshi 37%), a 3.0-point gap.

Oklahoma City 33.2%San Antonio 30.4%Minnesota 10.2%Los Angeles L 5.9%Denver 5.4%10 others 14.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 30 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Oklahoma City
33.2%
Polymarket 34%(33.2% fair)live, 3 h agoKalshi 37%(33% fair)live, 3 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oklahoma City Thunder
Price
34%
Fair, margin removed
33.2%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oklahoma City
Price
37%
Fair, margin removed
33%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

San Antonio
30.4%
Polymarket 33.5%(32.7% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 33%(29.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
San Antonio Spurs
Last price
33.5%
Fair, margin removed
32.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
San Antonio
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
29.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Minnesota
10.2%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 11%(9.8% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$238K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Los Angeles L
5.9%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 7%(6.3% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Los Angeles Lakers
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles L
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$123K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Denver
5.4%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 6%(5.4% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denver Nuggets
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denver
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Houston
4.2%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 5%(4.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Houston Rockets
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Houston
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$186K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Portland
2.5%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Portland Trail Blazers
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Portland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$183K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Golden State
2.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Golden State Warriors
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Golden State
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$114K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Dallas
1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dallas Mavericks
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dallas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$159K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Utah
1%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Utah Jazz
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Utah
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Show 5 more outcomes
Los Angeles C
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
LA Clippers
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles C
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Phoenix
0.9%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phoenix Suns
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Phoenix
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Memphis
0.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Memphis Grizzlies
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Memphis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

New Orleans
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Orleans Pelicans
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New Orleans
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Sacramento
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sacramento Kings
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sacramento
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 29, 2029, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Oklahoma City
  • San Antonio
  • Minnesota

Live prices for Oklahoma City

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Basketball Western Conference Champion". Oklahoma City leads at 33.2%. Next is San Antonio at 30.4%. $1.4M has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 29, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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