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3.5+ rushing TDs 61%
Next is Kyren Williams at 54.6%. The venues differ most on Kenneth Walker III (Polymarket 4.9%, Kalshi 25%), a 20-point gap.
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 28¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 75¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 6.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 720 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 16.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 46¢ nets 2990 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 50¢ and selling on Polymarket at 55¢ nets 500 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 37¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 12¢ nets 500 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 35¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 12¢ and selling on Polymarket at 22¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Jonathan Taylor on Polymarket at 16.1¢, sell on Kalshi at 46¢ (2990 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
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Kalshi doesn’t list 3.5+ rushing TDs for this event.
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
Live prediction market odds for "Pro Football: 16+ Rushing Touchdowns Season". 3.5+ rushing TDs leads at 61%. Next is Kyren Williams at 54.6%. $65K has traded across 44 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 2, 2027.
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.