The Prediction Markets

Pro Football 1st Quarterback Drafted in 2027

Closes
Jun 7, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Drew Mestemaker 33.5%

Next is CJ Carr at 15.9%. The venues differ most on Darian Mensah (Polymarket 4.9%, Kalshi 27%), a 22-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Drew Mestemaker
33.5%
Polymarket 31%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $267 (2.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drew Mestemaker
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37.4¢
Sell Yes
24.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$267 (2.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drew Mestemaker
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 32¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 37.4¢.

CJ Carr
15.9%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
CJ Carr
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
CJ Carr
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$901
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18¢.

Arch Manning
10.8%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arch Manning
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Arch Manning
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

Darian MensahArb
10.4%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Darian Mensah
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$811
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Darian Mensah
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 9.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 20¢ nets 1060 bps before fees.

Trinidad Chambliss
8.3%
Polymarket 8.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trinidad Chambliss
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Trinidad Chambliss
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$369
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Dylan Stewart
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $885 (8.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dylan Stewart
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$885 (8.85x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Polymarket
Jordan Seaton
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $885 (8.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Seaton
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$885 (8.85x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Byrum Brown
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Byrum Brown
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Polymarket
Duce Robinson
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Duce Robinson
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$84
Trade this on Polymarket
Ellis Robinson IV
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ellis Robinson IV
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$799
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 14 more outcomes
Dante Moore
5.1%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dante Moore
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dante Moore
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.3¢.

David Stone
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Stone
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Polymarket
LaNorris Sellers
4.1%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
LaNorris Sellers
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
LaNorris Sellers
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Brendan Sorsby
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brendan Sorsby
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$82
Trade this on Polymarket
Sam Leavitt
3.4%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Leavitt
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$885 (8.85x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Leavitt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Julian Sayin
2.6%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julian Sayin
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julian Sayin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Leonard Moore
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Leonard Moore
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Polymarket
Austin Simmons
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Simmons
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Drake Lindsey
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drake Lindsey
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jayden Maiava
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jayden Maiava
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Hoover
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Hoover
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Katin Houser
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Katin Houser
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nico Iamaleava
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nico Iamaleava
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
John Mateer
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Mateer
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Darian Mensah on Polymarket at 9.4¢, sell on Kalshi at 20¢ (1060 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: May 10, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 7, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes May 10, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 7, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Drew Mestemaker
  • CJ Carr
  • Arch Manning

Live prices for Drew Mestemaker

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Football 1st Quarterback Drafted in 2027". Drew Mestemaker leads at 33.5%. Next is CJ Carr at 15.9%. $28K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 7, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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