The Prediction Markets

Pro Football: 20+ Passing Touchdowns Season

Closes
Feb 2, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$55K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

16.5+ passing TDs 89.5%

Next is Kirk Cousins at 85%. The venues differ most on Lamar Jackson (Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 85%), a 75-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
16.5+ passing TDs
89.5%
Polymarket 89.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
16.5+ passing TDs
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Polymarket
Kirk Cousins
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kirk Cousins
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Geno Smith
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Geno Smith
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacoby Brissett
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacoby Brissett
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Kalshi
Jared GoffArb
83.3%
Polymarket 75%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 95%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jared Goff
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Goff
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 76¢ and selling on Kalshi at 90¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.

Shedeur Sanders
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shedeur Sanders
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Kyler Murray
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kyler Murray
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Kalshi
Brock Purdy
78.3%
Polymarket 72%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 97%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brock Purdy
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brock Purdy
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 71¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 74¢.

19.5+ passing TDs
75.5%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
19.5+ passing TDs
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Trevor LawrenceArb
73%
Polymarket 67%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 91%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trevor Lawrence
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Trevor Lawrence
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$360
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 68¢ and selling on Kalshi at 91¢ nets 2300 bps before fees.

Show 34 more outcomes
Joe BurrowArb
70.6%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 86%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 66¢ and selling on Kalshi at 86¢ nets 2000 bps before fees.

Patrick MahomesArb
68.6%
Polymarket 38%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 86%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 39¢ and selling on Kalshi at 69¢ nets 3000 bps before fees.

18.5+ passing TDs
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
18.5+ passing TDs
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tyler ShoughArb
59.4%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 84%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Shough
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$669
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Shough
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$513
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 41¢ and selling on Kalshi at 79¢ nets 3800 bps before fees.

Matthew StaffordArb
59.1%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 85%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matthew Stafford
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Stafford
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 51¢ and selling on Kalshi at 84¢ nets 3300 bps before fees.

Daniel Jones
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Jones
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$119
Trade this on Kalshi
Bryce Young
56.5%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 85%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bryce Young
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bryce Young
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 46¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 97¢.

Aaron RodgersArb
56.4%
Polymarket 46%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 75%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Rodgers
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Aaron Rodgers
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 48¢ and selling on Kalshi at 74¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.

Jordan Love
56.2%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 86%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Love
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$795
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Love
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 42¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 98¢.

Drake MayeArb
56.1%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 79%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drake Maye
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drake Maye
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$95
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 50¢ and selling on Kalshi at 79¢ nets 2900 bps before fees.

Dak Prescott
53.8%
Polymarket 53%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 56%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dak Prescott
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dak Prescott
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 56¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 56¢.

22.5+ passing TDs
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
22.5+ passing TDs
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Polymarket
Caleb WilliamsArb
42.5%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 58%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caleb Williams
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Williams
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$237
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 40¢ nets 3100 bps before fees.

21.5+ passing TDs
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
21.5+ passing TDs
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tua Tagovailoa
42.5%
Kalshi 42.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tua Tagovailoa
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh AllenArb
41.9%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 79%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 31¢ and selling on Kalshi at 79¢ nets 4800 bps before fees.

Lamar JacksonArb
38.3%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 85%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lamar Jackson
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$529
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lamar Jackson
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 11¢ and selling on Kalshi at 60¢ nets 4900 bps before fees.

24.5+ passing TDs
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
24.5+ passing TDs
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sam Darnold
29.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 42.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Darnold
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$816
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Darnold
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.

C.J. StroudArb
28.8%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 64%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
C.J. Stroud
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$869
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
C.J. Stroud
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 19¢ and selling on Kalshi at 64¢ nets 4500 bps before fees.

25.5+ passing TDs
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
25.5+ passing TDs
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bo Nix
26.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 42.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bo Nix
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bo Nix
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

28.5+ passing TDs
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
28.5+ passing TDs
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cam Ward
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cam Ward
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$602
Trade this on Kalshi
Jaxson Dart
16.6%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 60%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaxson Dart
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$377
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jaxson Dart
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.8¢.

Jayden Daniels
13.8%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 23%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jayden Daniels
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jayden Daniels
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.

Justin HerbertArb
13.3%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 38%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Herbert
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Herbert
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 22¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.

27.5+ passing TDs
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
27.5+ passing TDs
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Malik Willis
9.4%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malik Willis
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Malik Willis
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Cam Ward
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cameron Ward
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Jalen Hurts
4.7%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jalen Hurts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Hurts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 79¢.

Baker Mayfield
4%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baker Mayfield
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baker Mayfield
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.

30.5+ passing TDs
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
30.5+ passing TDs
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fernando Mendoza
1.6%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Mendoza
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fernando Mendoza
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.4¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Lamar Jackson on Polymarket at 11¢, sell on Kalshi at 60¢ (4900 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 27, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 2, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 27, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 2, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 16.5+ passing TDs
  • Kirk Cousins
  • Geno Smith

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 16.5+ passing TDs for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Football: 20+ Passing Touchdowns Season". 16.5+ passing TDs leads at 89.5%. Next is Kirk Cousins at 85%. $55K has traded across 44 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 2, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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