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Christian Watson 87.5%
Next is Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 83.6%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 92¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 98¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 60¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 65¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 41¢ and selling on Polymarket at 84¢ nets 4300 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 38¢ and selling on Polymarket at 88¢ nets 5000 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 17¢ and selling on Polymarket at 82¢ nets 6500 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 72¢ and selling on Polymarket at 81¢ nets 900 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 25¢ and selling on Polymarket at 84¢ nets 5900 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 49¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 83¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 25¢ and selling on Polymarket at 81¢ nets 5600 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 14¢ and selling on Polymarket at 60¢ nets 4600 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 18¢ and selling on Polymarket at 81¢ nets 6300 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 20¢ and selling on Polymarket at 71¢ nets 5100 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 15¢ and selling on Polymarket at 74¢ nets 5900 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 29¢ and selling on Polymarket at 74¢ nets 4500 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 14¢ and selling on Polymarket at 76.7¢ nets 6270 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 38¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 41¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 27¢ and selling on Polymarket at 77¢ nets 5000 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 30¢ and selling on Polymarket at 46¢ nets 1600 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 57¢ and selling on Polymarket at 66¢ nets 900 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 37¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 46¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 30¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 39¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 13¢ and selling on Polymarket at 27¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 11¢ and selling on Polymarket at 26¢ nets 1500 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 34¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 28¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 700 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 600 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 14¢ and selling on Polymarket at 18¢ nets 400 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10.8¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.5¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 20 bps before fees.
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Tetairoa McMillan on Kalshi at 17¢, sell on Polymarket at 82¢ (6500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
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Kalshi doesn’t list Christian Watson for this event.
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
Live prediction market odds for "Pro Football: 2026-27 1,000+ Receiving Yards". Christian Watson leads at 87.5%. Next is Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 83.6%. $331K has traded across 51 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 27, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of receiving yards the listed player records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds 1,000. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. If the listed player does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many receiving yards the listed player recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.