The Prediction Markets

Pro Football: 30+ Passing Touchdowns Season

Closes
Feb 2, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$52K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

16.5+ passing TDs 90.5%

Next is 19.5+ passing TDs at 75.5%. The venues differ most on Josh Allen (Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 71%), a 41-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
16.5+ passing TDs
90.5%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
16.5+ passing TDs
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Polymarket
19.5+ passing TDs
75.5%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
19.5+ passing TDs
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brock Purdy
73.6%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 77%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brock Purdy
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brock Purdy
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$313
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 64¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 75¢.

Jared Goff
70.8%
Polymarket 75%polled, 21s agoKalshi 65%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jared Goff
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Goff
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 73¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 76¢.

Trevor Lawrence
65.5%
Polymarket 67%polled, 21s agoKalshi 61%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trevor Lawrence
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Trevor Lawrence
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 66¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 74¢.

Joe Burrow
63.9%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 59%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$377
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 65¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 78¢.

Jordan Love
62.2%
Polymarket 45%polled, 21s agoKalshi 73%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Love
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$795
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Love
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 44¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 73¢.

18.5+ passing TDs
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
18.5+ passing TDs
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Matthew Stafford
56.6%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 75%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matthew Stafford
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Stafford
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$277
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 32¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 51¢.

Dak Prescott
50.8%
Polymarket 53%polled, 21s agoKalshi 44%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dak Prescott
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dak Prescott
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$417
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 50¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 81¢.

Show 29 more outcomes
Drake Maye
50.6%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 63%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drake Maye
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drake Maye
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 34¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 50¢.

22.5+ passing TDs
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
22.5+ passing TDs
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Polymarket
Bryce Young
47.9%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 49%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bryce Young
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bryce Young
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 46¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 50¢.

Aaron Rodgers
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Rodgers
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
21.5+ passing TDs
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
21.5+ passing TDs
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cameron Ward
42.5%
Kalshi 42.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cam Ward
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tua Tagovailoa
42.5%
Kalshi 42.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tua Tagovailoa
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Allen
40.6%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 71%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$553
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 33¢.

Tyler Shough
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Shough
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$669
Trade this on Polymarket
Patrick Mahomes
35.6%
Polymarket 38%polled, 21s agoKalshi 34%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$251
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 41¢.

24.5+ passing TDs
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
24.5+ passing TDs
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
25.5+ passing TDs
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
25.5+ passing TDs
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jaxson Dart
22.1%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 21s agoKalshi 42%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaxson Dart
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$377
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jaxson Dart
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 84¢.

Baker Mayfield
18.1%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 21s agoKalshi 40%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baker Mayfield
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baker Mayfield
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.3¢.

28.5+ passing TDs
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
28.5+ passing TDs
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
C.J. Stroud
17.3%
Polymarket 17%polled, 21s agoKalshi 18%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
C.J. Stroud
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$869
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
C.J. Stroud
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 18¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

Lamar Jackson
15.6%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 31%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lamar Jackson
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$529
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lamar Jackson
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$82
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Sam Darnold
15.1%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 17%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Darnold
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$816
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Darnold
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18¢.

Justin Herbert
14%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 21s agoKalshi 17%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Herbert
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Herbert
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Bo Nix
13.1%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 18%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bo Nix
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bo Nix
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 84¢.

Kyler Murray
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kyler Murray
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Kalshi
27.5+ passing TDs
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
27.5+ passing TDs
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Caleb Williams
7.5%
Polymarket 7%polled, 21s agoKalshi 9%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caleb Williams
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Williams
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 84¢.

Cameron Ward
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cameron Ward
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Malik Willis
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malik Willis
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Jayden Daniels
5.3%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 21s agoKalshi 6%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jayden Daniels
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jayden Daniels
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 80¢.

Jalen HurtsArb
4.8%
Polymarket 6%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jalen Hurts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Hurts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Fernando Mendoza
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Mendoza
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Polymarket
30.5+ passing TDs
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
30.5+ passing TDs
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Jalen Hurts on Kalshi at 2¢, sell on Polymarket at 5¢ (300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 27, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 2, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 27, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 2, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 16.5+ passing TDs
  • 19.5+ passing TDs
  • Brock Purdy

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 16.5+ passing TDs for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Football: 30+ Passing Touchdowns Season". 16.5+ passing TDs leads at 90.5%. Next is 19.5+ passing TDs at 75.5%. $52K has traded across 39 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 2, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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