The Prediction Markets

Pro Football: 35+ Passing Touchdowns Season

Closes
Feb 2, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$48K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

16.5+ passing TDs 89.5%

Next is 19.5+ passing TDs at 75.5%. The venues differ most on Joe Burrow (Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 25%), a 41-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
16.5+ passing TDs
89.5%
Polymarket 89.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
16.5+ passing TDs
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Polymarket
19.5+ passing TDs
75.5%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
19.5+ passing TDs
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brock Purdy
67.5%
Polymarket 72%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brock Purdy
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brock Purdy
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$258
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 70¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.

Trevor Lawrence
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trevor Lawrence
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jared GoffArb
66.2%
Polymarket 75%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jared Goff
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Goff
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 55¢ and selling on Polymarket at 74¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.

18.5+ passing TDs
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
18.5+ passing TDs
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joe BurrowArb
55.4%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 43¢ and selling on Polymarket at 65¢ nets 2200 bps before fees.

22.5+ passing TDs
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
22.5+ passing TDs
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Polymarket
Bryce Young
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bryce Young
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aaron Rodgers
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Rodgers
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 26 more outcomes
Matthew StaffordArb
45.6%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matthew Stafford
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Stafford
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 31¢ and selling on Polymarket at 50¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.

Dak PrescottArb
44.3%
Polymarket 53%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dak Prescott
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dak Prescott
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 32¢ and selling on Polymarket at 50¢ nets 1800 bps before fees.

21.5+ passing TDs
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
21.5+ passing TDs
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jordan Love
40.6%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Love
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$795
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Love
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 42¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 81¢.

Tyler Shough
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Shough
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$669
Trade this on Polymarket
Drake MayeArb
39.1%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drake Maye
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drake Maye
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$164
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 23¢ and selling on Polymarket at 47¢ nets 2400 bps before fees.

Patrick MahomesArb
34.6%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 23¢ and selling on Polymarket at 37¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.

24.5+ passing TDs
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
24.5+ passing TDs
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
25.5+ passing TDs
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
25.5+ passing TDs
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lamar Jackson
26.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lamar Jackson
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$529
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lamar Jackson
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.

Josh AllenArb
26.4%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 24¢ and selling on Polymarket at 28¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Jayden Daniels
23.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jayden Daniels
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jayden Daniels
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.

28.5+ passing TDs
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
28.5+ passing TDs
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
C.J. Stroud
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
C.J. Stroud
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$869
Trade this on Polymarket
Sam Darnold
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Darnold
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$816
Trade this on Polymarket
27.5+ passing TDs
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
27.5+ passing TDs
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Caleb Williams
12.7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caleb Williams
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Williams
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Bo Nix
8.6%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bo Nix
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bo Nix
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Baker Mayfield
7.9%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baker Mayfield
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baker Mayfield
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.

Cameron Ward
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cameron Ward
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Malik Willis
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malik Willis
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Jalen HurtsArb
5%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jalen Hurts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Hurts
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Justin Herbert
4.7%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Herbert
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Herbert
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Jaxson Dart
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaxson Dart
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$377
Trade this on Polymarket
Fernando Mendoza
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Mendoza
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Polymarket
30.5+ passing TDs
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
30.5+ passing TDs
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Drake Maye on Kalshi at 23¢, sell on Polymarket at 47¢ (2400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 27, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 2, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 27, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 2, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 16.5+ passing TDs
  • 19.5+ passing TDs
  • Brock Purdy

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 16.5+ passing TDs for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Football: 35+ Passing Touchdowns Season". 16.5+ passing TDs leads at 89.5%. Next is 19.5+ passing TDs at 75.5%. $48K has traded across 36 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 2, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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