The Prediction Markets

Pro Football: 40+ Passing Touchdowns Season

Closes
Feb 2, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$57K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

16.5+ passing TDs 93%

Next is 19.5+ passing TDs at 75.5%. The venues differ most on Jared Goff (Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 19%), a 55-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
16.5+ passing TDs
93%
Polymarket 93%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
16.5+ passing TDs
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Polymarket
19.5+ passing TDs
75.5%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
19.5+ passing TDs
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Trevor Lawrence
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trevor Lawrence
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brock Purdy
66.8%
Polymarket 73%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brock Purdy
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brock Purdy
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 70¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.

18.5+ passing TDs
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
18.5+ passing TDs
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jared Goff
51.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jared Goff
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Goff
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 20¢ and selling on Polymarket at 73¢ nets 5300 bps before fees.

Matthew Stafford
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matthew Stafford
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
22.5+ passing TDs
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
22.5+ passing TDs
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Polymarket
Aaron Rodgers
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Rodgers
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bryce Young
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bryce Young
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 26 more outcomes
Jordan Love
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Love
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$795
Trade this on Polymarket
21.5+ passing TDs
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
21.5+ passing TDs
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tyler Shough
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Shough
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$669
Trade this on Polymarket
Dak Prescott
39.2%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dak Prescott
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dak Prescott
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 12¢ and selling on Polymarket at 50¢ nets 3800 bps before fees.

Drake Maye
36.1%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drake Maye
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drake Maye
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$615
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 12¢ and selling on Polymarket at 47¢ nets 3500 bps before fees.

24.5+ passing TDs
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
24.5+ passing TDs
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
25.5+ passing TDs
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
25.5+ passing TDs
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joe Burrow
26.9%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 27¢ and selling on Polymarket at 65¢ nets 3800 bps before fees.

Josh Allen
26.1%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 16¢ and selling on Polymarket at 27¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

Lamar Jackson
25.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 40.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lamar Jackson
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$529
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lamar Jackson
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 81¢.

C.J. Stroud
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
C.J. Stroud
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$869
Trade this on Polymarket
28.5+ passing TDs
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
28.5+ passing TDs
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sam Darnold
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Darnold
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$816
Trade this on Polymarket
27.5+ passing TDs
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
27.5+ passing TDs
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Patrick Mahomes
11.3%
Polymarket 39%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$912
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 16¢ and selling on Polymarket at 38¢ nets 2200 bps before fees.

Bo Nix
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bo Nix
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Polymarket
Cameron Ward
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cameron Ward
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Malik Willis
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malik Willis
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Justin Herbert
7.3%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Herbert
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Herbert
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$854
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Caleb Williams
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caleb Williams
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Polymarket
Baker Mayfield
6.7%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baker Mayfield
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baker Mayfield
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.3¢.

Jalen Hurts
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jalen Hurts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jayden Daniels
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jayden Daniels
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Jaxson Dart
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaxson Dart
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$377
Trade this on Polymarket
Fernando Mendoza
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Mendoza
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Polymarket
30.5+ passing TDs
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
30.5+ passing TDs
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: Jared Goff asks 20¢ on Kalshi and bids 73¢ on Polymarket (5300 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 27, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 2, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 27, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 2, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 16.5+ passing TDs
  • 19.5+ passing TDs
  • Trevor Lawrence

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 16.5+ passing TDs for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Football: 40+ Passing Touchdowns Season". 16.5+ passing TDs leads at 93%. Next is 19.5+ passing TDs at 75.5%. $57K has traded across 36 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 2, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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