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Matthew Golden 97%
Next is Christian Watson at 92.9%. The venues differ most on Marvin Harrison Jr. (Polymarket 3.5%, Kalshi 79%), a 76-point gap.
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 86¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 97¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 77¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 97¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 82¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 86¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 82¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 97¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 71¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 97¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 75¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 74¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 98¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 80¢ and selling on Kalshi at 83¢ nets 300 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 80¢ and selling on Kalshi at 84¢ nets 400 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 57¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 64¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 60¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 84¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 46¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 62¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 28¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 36¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 42¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 39¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 16¢ and selling on Kalshi at 55¢ nets 3900 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 28¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 26¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 39¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10.8¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 900 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 26¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.5¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.3¢.
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Jaylen Waddle on Polymarket at 16¢, sell on Kalshi at 55¢ (3900 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket doesn’t list Matthew Golden for this event.
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Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
Live prediction market odds for "Pro Football: 750+ Receiving Yards Season". Matthew Golden leads at 97%. Next is Christian Watson at 92.9%. $198K has traded across 101 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 2, 2027.
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.