The Prediction Markets

Pro Football: Bills 2026 Win Total

Closes
Feb 16, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$1.7M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

3+ wins 94.8%

Next is 4+ wins at 89.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
3+ wins
94.8%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
3+ wins
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
3+ wins
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
4+ wins
89.5%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
4+ wins
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$103K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
4+ wins
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
10.5+ Wins
84%
Polymarket 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
10.5+ Wins
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
5+ wins
83%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
5+ wins
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
5+ wins
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$113K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
5+ wins
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
6+ wins
69.9%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
6+ wins
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
6+ wins
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$97K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
6+ wins
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
11.5+ Wins
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
11.5+ Wins
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$536
Trade this on Polymarket
7+ wins
59.1%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
7+ wins
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
7+ wins
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
7+ wins
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$98K
Trade this on Kalshi
8.5+ Wins
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
8.5+ Wins
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$134
Trade this on Polymarket
9.5+ Wins
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
9.5+ Wins
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Polymarket
8+ wins
47.3%
Kalshi 96%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
8+ wins
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
8+ wins
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
8+ wins
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$100K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
12.5+ Wins
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
12.5+ Wins
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
9+ wins
33.5%
Kalshi 87%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
9+ wins
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
9+ wins
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
9+ wins
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Kalshi
11+ wins
28.7%
Kalshi 59%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
11+ wins
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
11+ wins
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
11+ wins
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
10+ wins
25%
Kalshi 77%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
10+ wins
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
10+ wins
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
10+ wins
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$73K
Trade this on Kalshi
12+ wins
18%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
12+ wins
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$477K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
12+ wins
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
12+ wins
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
13+ wins
12.2%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
13+ wins
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
13+ wins
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
13+ wins
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
14+ wins
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
14+ wins
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
15+ wins
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
15+ wins
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: nfl.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 3+ wins
  • 4+ wins
  • 10.5+ Wins

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 3+ wins for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Football: Bills 2026 Win Total". 3+ wins leads at 94.8%. Next is 4+ wins at 89.5%. $1.7M has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 16, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team's regular season win total exceeds the listed number. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Only official regular-season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. Only played games resulting in a win will count toward this total. If the listed team plays fewer games than scheduled due to cancellation, weather, forfeit, or any other reason, only actual wins recorded count toward the total; canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after February 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many wins the listed team recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official NFL records (https://www.nfl.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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