The Prediction Markets

Pro Football: First QB to 2,000 Passing Yards

Closes
Jan 27, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$262K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Matthew Stafford 70.3%

Next is Jordan Love at 69.3%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Matthew StaffordArb
70.3%
Polymarket 29%polled, 54s agoKalshi 71%polled, 54s agoKalshi 89%polled, 54s agoKalshi 92%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matthew Stafford
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Stafford
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Stafford
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Stafford
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 48¢ and selling on Kalshi at 74¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.

Jordan LoveArb
69.3%
Polymarket 26%polled, 54s agoKalshi 71%polled, 54s agoKalshi 97%polled, 54s agoKalshi 83%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Love
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$807
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Love
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Love
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$665
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Love
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 28¢ and selling on Kalshi at 33¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Jared GoffArb
64.5%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 82%polled, 54s agoKalshi 89%polled, 54s agoKalshi 85%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jared Goff
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$772
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Goff
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Goff
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$932
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Goff
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 28¢ nets 2440 bps before fees.

Bryce YoungArb
61.7%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 54s agoKalshi 80%polled, 54s agoKalshi 85%polled, 54s agoKalshi 79%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bryce Young
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$581
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bryce Young
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Bryce Young
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Bryce Young
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 39¢ nets 3410 bps before fees.

Dak PrescottArb
61.1%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 54s agoKalshi 63%polled, 54s agoKalshi 95%polled, 54s agoKalshi 83%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dak Prescott
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dak Prescott
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dak Prescott
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$902
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dak Prescott
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 67¢ nets 6100 bps before fees.

Josh AllenArb
60.4%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 54s agoKalshi 58%polled, 54s agoKalshi 98%polled, 54s agoKalshi 83%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 91¢ nets 8630 bps before fees.

Drake Maye
59.6%
Polymarket 25.4%polled, 54s agoKalshi 49%polled, 54s agoKalshi 85%polled, 54s agoKalshi 79%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 49.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $201 (2.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drake Maye
Last price
25.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$201 (2.01x)
Volume
$615
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drake Maye
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Drake Maye
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$796
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Drake Maye
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 24¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 49.7¢.

Joe BurrowArb
59.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 54s agoKalshi 71%polled, 54s agoKalshi 81%polled, 54s agoKalshi 84%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Burrow
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 81¢ nets 7850 bps before fees.

Brock PurdyArb
59.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoKalshi 61%polled, 54s agoKalshi 96%polled, 54s agoKalshi 79%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brock Purdy
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brock Purdy
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Brock Purdy
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Brock Purdy
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 31¢ nets 3010 bps before fees.

Trevor LawrenceArb
56.6%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 54s agoKalshi 64%polled, 54s agoKalshi 87%polled, 54s agoKalshi 75%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trevor Lawrence
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$758
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Trevor Lawrence
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Trevor Lawrence
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$712
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Trevor Lawrence
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 86¢ nets 8540 bps before fees.

Show 24 more outcomes
Tyler ShoughArb
54.9%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 54s agoKalshi 37%polled, 54s agoKalshi 96%polled, 54s agoKalshi 84%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Shough
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Shough
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Shough
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Shough
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 82¢ nets 7770 bps before fees.

Patrick MahomesArb
53.2%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 54s agoKalshi 53%polled, 54s agoKalshi 94%polled, 54s agoKalshi 64%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$754
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$902
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Mahomes
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 77¢ nets 7380 bps before fees.

C.J. Stroud
48.6%
Polymarket 48.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 50.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $199 (1.99x)
Polymarket
Contract
C.J. Stroud
Last price
48.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50.2¢
Sell Yes
46.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$199 (1.99x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kirk CousinsArb
47.2%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 54s agoKalshi 39%polled, 54s agoKalshi 75%polled, 54s agoKalshi 74%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kirk Cousins
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kirk Cousins
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Kirk Cousins
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Kirk Cousins
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$155
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 26¢ nets 2490 bps before fees.

Aaron RodgersArb
42%
Polymarket 1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 12%polled, 54s agoKalshi 81%polled, 54s agoKalshi 74%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Rodgers
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Aaron Rodgers
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Aaron Rodgers
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Aaron Rodgers
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 66¢ nets 6420 bps before fees.

Geno SmithArb
41.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoKalshi 41%polled, 54s agoKalshi 80%polled, 54s agoKalshi 46%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Geno Smith
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Geno Smith
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Geno Smith
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Geno Smith
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 68¢ nets 6700 bps before fees.

Baker MayfieldArb
38.1%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 54s agoKalshi 35%polled, 54s agoKalshi 85%polled, 54s agoKalshi 32%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baker Mayfield
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baker Mayfield
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Baker Mayfield
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$951
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Baker Mayfield
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 8¢ nets 740 bps before fees.

Daniel JonesArb
35.2%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, 54s agoKalshi 19%polled, 54s agoKalshi 70%polled, 54s agoKalshi 43%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 16.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $602 (6.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Jones
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$602 (6.02x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Jones
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Jones
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Jones
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 16.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 63¢ nets 4640 bps before fees.

Justin HerbertArb
34.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 54s agoKalshi 21%polled, 54s agoKalshi 71%polled, 54s agoKalshi 45%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Herbert
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Herbert
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Herbert
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$229
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Herbert
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$806
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 230 bps before fees.

Cameron Ward
34.2%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoKalshi 71%polled, 54s agoKalshi 28%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cam Ward
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cam Ward
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cam Ward
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sam DarnoldArb
33.1%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 54s agoKalshi 20%polled, 54s agoKalshi 74%polled, 54s agoKalshi 38%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Darnold
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Darnold
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Darnold
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Darnold
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$432
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 210 bps before fees.

Lamar JacksonArb
31%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 57%polled, 54s agoKalshi 63%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lamar Jackson
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lamar Jackson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Lamar Jackson
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Lamar Jackson
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 16¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

Caleb WilliamsArb
26.8%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 15%polled, 54s agoKalshi 68%polled, 54s agoKalshi 24%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caleb Williams
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Williams
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Williams
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Williams
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 58¢ nets 5790 bps before fees.

Malik WillisArb
25.5%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 54s agoKalshi 6%polled, 54s agoKalshi 59%polled, 54s agoKalshi 36%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malik Willis
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Malik Willis
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Malik Willis
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Malik Willis
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 1140 bps before fees.

Michael Penix Jr.Arb
24.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 54s agoKalshi 12%polled, 54s agoKalshi 62%polled, 54s agoKalshi 24%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Penix Jr.
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$354
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Penix Jr.
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Penix Jr.
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Penix Jr.
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$878
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 28¢ nets 2780 bps before fees.

Bo NixArb
23.1%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 54s agoKalshi 16%polled, 54s agoKalshi 52%polled, 54s agoKalshi 24%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bo Nix
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bo Nix
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Bo Nix
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$464
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Bo Nix
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 450 bps before fees.

Fernando Mendoza
21.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 54s agoKalshi 42%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 42.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Mendoza
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$328
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fernando Mendoza
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fernando Mendoza
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fernando Mendoza
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Kyler MurrayArb
17.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 54s agoKalshi 11%polled, 54s agoKalshi 39%polled, 54s agoKalshi 21%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kyler Murray
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kyler Murray
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Kyler Murray
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Kyler Murray
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 1220 bps before fees.

Jayden DanielsArb
10.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 54s agoKalshi 6%polled, 54s agoKalshi 25%polled, 54s agoKalshi 10%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jayden Daniels
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$372
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jayden Daniels
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jayden Daniels
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jayden Daniels
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 370 bps before fees.

Deshaun Watson
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Deshaun Watson
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
Jaxson DartArb
1.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 2%polled, 54s agoKalshi 2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaxson Dart
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$915
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jaxson Dart
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jaxson Dart
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jaxson Dart
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$956
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 170 bps before fees.

Jalen HurtsArb
1.1%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 2%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jalen Hurts
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Hurts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Hurts
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Hurts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 60 bps before fees.

Jacoby Brissett
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacoby Brissett
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$522
Trade this on Polymarket
Cameron Ward
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cameron Ward
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Josh Allen on Polymarket at 4.7¢, sell on Kalshi at 91¢ (8630 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 27, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 2, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 27, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 2, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Matthew Stafford
  • Jordan Love
  • Jared Goff

Live prices for Matthew Stafford

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pro Football: First QB to 2,000 Passing Yards". Matthew Stafford leads at 70.3%. Next is Jordan Love at 69.3%. $262K has traded across 34 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 27, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is the first quarterback to reach 2,000 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". A player reaches 2,000 passing yards at the moment his cumulative 2026-27 NFL regular season passing yards total equals or exceeds 2,000. Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. If two or more quarterbacks reach 2,000 passing yards within the same game, or in separate games that have the same scheduled kickoff time, the market for each such player who reaches the mark will resolve to "Yes". If the listed player does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined which quarterback first reached 2,000 passing yards within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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