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Jaxon Smith-Njigba 40%
Next is Malik Nabers at 39.4%. The venues differ most on Baker Mayfield (Polymarket 6.2%, Kalshi 2%), a 4.2-point gap.
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 31¢ and selling on Polymarket at 70¢ nets 3900 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 19¢ and selling on Polymarket at 73¢ nets 5400 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 16¢ and selling on Polymarket at 65¢ nets 4900 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 66¢ nets 6000 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 45¢ nets 3800 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 50¢ nets 4500 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 46¢ nets 3900 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 46¢ nets 4100 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 42¢ nets 3400 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 50¢ nets 4800 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 28¢ nets 2500 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 35¢ nets 3000 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 38¢ nets 3500 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 12¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 800 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 800 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 300 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 300 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5.1¢ nets 310 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2.1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 6¢ nets 500 bps before fees.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.9¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Trevor Lawrence on Kalshi at 6¢, sell on Polymarket at 66¢ (6000 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
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Kalshi doesn’t list Jaxon Smith-Njigba for this event.
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
Live prediction market odds for "Pro Football Passing Touchdowns Leader". Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads at 40%. Next is Malik Nabers at 39.4%. $198K has traded across 58 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 8, 2027.
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.