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What the markets expect
Eugenio Segura Vázquez 83.2%
Next is Ana Patricia Peralta de la Peña at 4.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 50 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Eugenio Segura Vázquez83.2%77%83.2% fair76¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 50 min ago78¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $128 (1.28x)Eugenio Segura Vázquez83.2%Polymarket 77%(83.2% fair)polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Eugenio Segura Vázquez
83.2%
77%
83.2% fair
76¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
78¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Eugenio Segura Vázquez
83.2%
Polymarket 77%(83.2% fair)polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Eugenio Segura Vázquez
- Last price
- 77%
- Fair, margin removed
- 83.2%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $12K
Ana Patricia Peralta de la Peña4.8%4.5%0.9¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 50 min ago8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Ana Patricia Peralta de la Peña4.8%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Ana Patricia Peralta de la Peña
4.8%
4.5%
0.9¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Ana Patricia Peralta de la Peña
4.8%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ana Patricia Peralta de la Peña
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $9K
Reyna Tamayo Carballo3.7%3.4%0.7¢ bid, 6.1¢ askpolled, 50 min ago6.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)Reyna Tamayo Carballo3.7%Polymarket 3.4%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Reyna Tamayo Carballo
3.7%
3.4%
0.7¢ bid, 6.1¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
6.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Reyna Tamayo Carballo
3.7%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Reyna Tamayo Carballo
- Last price
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,639 (16.4x)
- Volume
- $740
Rafael Marín Mollinedo3%2.8%0.9¢ bid, 4.7¢ askpolled, 50 min ago4.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)Rafael Marín Mollinedo3%Polymarket 2.8%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Rafael Marín Mollinedo
3%
2.8%
0.9¢ bid, 4.7¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
4.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Rafael Marín Mollinedo
3%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rafael Marín Mollinedo
- Last price
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,128 (21.3x)
- Volume
- $11K
Marybel Villegas Canché1.1%1.1%1¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 50 min ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Marybel Villegas Canché1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Marybel Villegas Canché
1.1%
1.1%
1¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Marybel Villegas Canché
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Marybel Villegas Canché
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $3K
José Luis Pech Várguez0.9%0.8%0.3¢ bid, 1.3¢ askpolled, 50 min ago1.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)José Luis Pech Várguez0.9%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
José Luis Pech Várguez
0.9%
0.8%
0.3¢ bid, 1.3¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
1.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
José Luis Pech Várguez
0.9%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- José Luis Pech Várguez
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,692 (76.9x)
- Volume
- $565
Estefanía Mercado Asencio0.8%0.7%0.5¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 50 min ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Estefanía Mercado Asencio0.8%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Estefanía Mercado Asencio
0.8%
0.7%
0.5¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Estefanía Mercado Asencio
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Estefanía Mercado Asencio
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $2K
Amalia Castilla Madrid0.5%0.5%0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 50 min ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)Amalia Castilla Madrid0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Amalia Castilla Madrid
0.5%
0.5%
0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Amalia Castilla Madrid
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Amalia Castilla Madrid
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $503
Alexa Murguía Trujillo0.4%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 50 min ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Alexa Murguía Trujillo0.4%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Alexa Murguía Trujillo
0.4%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Alexa Murguía Trujillo
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alexa Murguía Trujillo
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $662
Lidia Rojas Fabro0.4%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 50 min ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Lidia Rojas Fabro0.4%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Lidia Rojas Fabro
0.4%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Lidia Rojas Fabro
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lidia Rojas Fabro
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $480
Show 6 more outcomesHide 6 outcomes
Leslie Hendricks Rubio0.3%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 50 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Leslie Hendricks Rubio0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Leslie Hendricks Rubio
0.3%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Leslie Hendricks Rubio
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Leslie Hendricks Rubio
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $485
Roberto Palazuelos Badeaux0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 50 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Roberto Palazuelos Badeaux0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Roberto Palazuelos Badeaux
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Roberto Palazuelos Badeaux
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Roberto Palazuelos Badeaux
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $554
Filiberto Martínez Méndez0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 50 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Filiberto Martínez Méndez0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Filiberto Martínez Méndez
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Filiberto Martínez Méndez
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Filiberto Martínez Méndez
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $611
Mayuli Martínez Simón0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 50 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Mayuli Martínez Simón0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Mayuli Martínez Simón
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Mayuli Martínez Simón
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mayuli Martínez Simón
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $567
Pedro José Flota Alcocer0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 50 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Pedro José Flota Alcocer0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Pedro José Flota Alcocer
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Pedro José Flota Alcocer
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pedro José Flota Alcocer
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $560
David Ortiz Mena0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 50 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)David Ortiz Mena0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
David Ortiz Mena
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 50 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
David Ortiz Mena
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- David Ortiz Mena
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 50 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $487
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Eugenio Segura Vázquez
- Ana Patricia Peralta de la Peña
- Reyna Tamayo Carballo
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Quintana Roo Governor Election Winner". Eugenio Segura Vázquez leads at 83.2%. Next is Ana Patricia Peralta de la Peña at 4.8%. $43K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 7, 2027.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Quintana Roo on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Quintana Roo gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Quintana Roo and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Quintana Roo and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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