The Prediction Markets

QUINTESSENCIA vs. BORRACHEIROS

LiveKickoff In play now; prices move fast
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Map 1 Winner 100%

Next is BORRACHEIROS at 95.9%. The venues differ most on BORRACHEIROS (Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 97%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Map 1 Winner
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 60s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Winner
Last price
100%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$267
Trade this on Polymarket
BORRACHEIROS
95.9%
Polymarket 95.5%polled, 60s agoKalshi 97%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Match Winner
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
BORRACHEIROS
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 96¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 96¢.

Map 2 Winner
93.5%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Winner
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Games
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Games
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Polymarket
QUINTESSENCIA
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
QUINTESSENCIA
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$655
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 23, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: kick.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: B03, HLTV, Gamers World
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Oct 23, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Map 1 Winner
  • BORRACHEIROS
  • Map 2 Winner

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Map 1 Winner for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "QUINTESSENCIA vs. BORRACHEIROS". Map 1 Winner leads at 100%. Next is BORRACHEIROS at 95.9%. $11K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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