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What the markets expect
San Francisco 56.6%
Next is Philadelphia at 4.4%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
San Francisco56.6%77%56.6% fair65¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 21s ago77¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $130 (1.30x)San Francisco56.6%Kalshi 77%(56.6% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
San Francisco
56.6%
77%
56.6% fair
65¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
77¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
San Francisco
56.6%
Kalshi 77%(56.6% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- San Francisco
- Last price
- 77%
- Fair, margin removed
- 56.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $9K
Philadelphia4.4%6%4.4% fair— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 21s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Philadelphia4.4%Kalshi 6%(4.4% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Philadelphia
4.4%
6%
4.4% fair
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Philadelphia
4.4%
Kalshi 6%(4.4% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Philadelphia
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $466
Arizona3%4%2.9% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 21s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Arizona3%Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Arizona
3%
4%
2.9% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Arizona
3%
Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $104
Detroit2.6%3.5%2.6% fair1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 21s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Detroit2.6%Kalshi 3.5%(2.6% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Detroit
2.6%
3.5%
2.6% fair
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Detroit
2.6%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.6% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Detroit
- Last price
- 3.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Chicago WS2.2%3%2.2% fair— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Chicago WS2.2%Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Chicago WS
2.2%
3%
2.2% fair
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Chicago WS
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chicago WS
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $146
Seattle2.2%3%2.2% fair— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Seattle2.2%Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Seattle
2.2%
3%
2.2% fair
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Seattle
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Seattle
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $57
Washington2.2%3%2.2% fair— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 21s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Washington2.2%Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Washington
2.2%
3%
2.2% fair
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Washington
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Washington
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Pittsburgh1.9%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 21s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Pittsburgh1.9%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Pittsburgh
1.9%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Pittsburgh
1.9%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pittsburgh
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
New York M1.5%2%1.5% fair2¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 21s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)New York M1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.5% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
New York M
1.5%
2%
1.5% fair
2¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
New York M
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.5% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New York M
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $98
A's1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)A's1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
A's
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
A's
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- A's
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Show 21 more outcomesHide 21 outcomes
Atlanta1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Atlanta1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Atlanta
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Atlanta
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlanta
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Baltimore1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Baltimore1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Baltimore
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Baltimore
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Baltimore
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Boston1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Boston1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Boston
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Boston
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boston
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Chicago C1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Chicago C1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Chicago C
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Chicago C
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chicago C
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Cincinnati1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Cincinnati1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Cincinnati
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Cincinnati
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cincinnati
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Cleveland1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Cleveland1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Cleveland
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Cleveland
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cleveland
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Colorado1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Colorado1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Colorado
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Colorado
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Colorado
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Houston1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Houston1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Houston
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Houston
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Houston
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Kansas City1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Kansas City1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kansas City
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kansas City
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas City
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Los Angeles A1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Los Angeles A1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Los Angeles A
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Los Angeles A
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Los Angeles A
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Los Angeles D1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Los Angeles D1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Los Angeles D
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Los Angeles D
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Los Angeles D
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Miami1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Miami1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Miami
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Miami
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Miami
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Milwaukee1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Milwaukee1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Milwaukee
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Milwaukee
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Milwaukee
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Minnesota1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Minnesota1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Minnesota
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Minnesota
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Retires / No Team1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Retires / No Team1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Retires / No Team
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Retires / No Team
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Retires / No Team
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
St. Louis1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)St. Louis1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
St. Louis
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
St. Louis
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- St. Louis
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Tampa Bay1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Tampa Bay1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Tampa Bay
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Tampa Bay
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tampa Bay
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Texas1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Texas1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Texas
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Texas
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Texas
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Toronto1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 21s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Toronto1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Toronto
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Toronto
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Toronto
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
New York Y0.7%1%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 21s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)New York Y0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
New York Y
0.7%
1%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
New York Y
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New York Y
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $838
San Diego0.7%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 21s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)San Diego0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
San Diego
0.7%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
San Diego
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- San Diego
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- San Francisco
- Philadelphia
- Arizona
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Rafael Devers's Next Team". San Francisco leads at 56.6%. Next is Philadelphia at 4.4%. $12K has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 25, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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