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What the markets expect
Max Verstappen 44%
Next is Andrea Kimi Antonelli at 33.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Max Verstappen44%Not listed5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 18s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Max Verstappen44%Kalshi 48%polled, 18s agoKalshi 75%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Max Verstappen
44%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Max Verstappen
44%
Kalshi 48%polled, 18s agoKalshi 75%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Max Verstappen
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $30K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Max Verstappen
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Max Verstappen
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $150
Andrea Kimi Antonelli33.8%Not listed12%3¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 18s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Andrea Kimi Antonelli33.8%Kalshi 27%polled, 18s agoKalshi 69%polled, 18s agoKalshi 12%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
33.8%
Not listed
12%
3¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
33.8%
Kalshi 27%polled, 18s agoKalshi 69%polled, 18s agoKalshi 12%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andrea Kimi Antonelli
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $26K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andrea Kimi Antonelli
- Last price
- 69%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 67¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andrea Kimi Antonelli
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $365
George Russell16.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 18s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)George Russell16.5%Kalshi 9%polled, 18s agoKalshi 38%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
George Russell
16.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
George Russell
16.5%
Kalshi 9%polled, 18s agoKalshi 38%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- George Russell
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $14K
Kalshi
- Contract
- George Russell
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- George Russell
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Yes16.5%16.5%16¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Yes16.5%Polymarket 16.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Yes
16.5%
16.5%
16¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Yes
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yes
- Last price
- 16.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $1K
Lando Norris15.8%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 18s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Lando Norris15.8%Kalshi 8%polled, 18s agoKalshi 37%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lando Norris
15.8%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lando Norris
15.8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 18s agoKalshi 37%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lando Norris
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $25K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lando Norris
- Last price
- 37%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lando Norris
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Lewis Hamilton14%Not listed5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 18s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Lewis Hamilton14%Kalshi 8%polled, 18s agoKalshi 35%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lewis Hamilton
14%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lewis Hamilton
14%
Kalshi 8%polled, 18s agoKalshi 35%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lewis Hamilton
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $24K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lewis Hamilton
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $5K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lewis Hamilton
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $206
Charles Leclerc13%Not listed5%4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 18s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Charles Leclerc13%Kalshi 7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 33%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Charles Leclerc
13%
Not listed
5%
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Charles Leclerc
13%
Kalshi 7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 33%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Charles Leclerc
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $15K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Charles Leclerc
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Charles Leclerc
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $216
Isack Hadjar8%Not listed5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 18s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Isack Hadjar8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 18%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Isack Hadjar
8%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Isack Hadjar
8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 18%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Isack Hadjar
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Isack Hadjar
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $733
Kalshi
- Contract
- Isack Hadjar
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Oscar Piastri6.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 18s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Oscar Piastri6.5%Kalshi 3%polled, 18s agoKalshi 14%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Oscar Piastri
6.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Oscar Piastri
6.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 18s agoKalshi 14%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oscar Piastri
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $12K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oscar Piastri
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $770
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oscar Piastri
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Carlos Sainz Jr.4.2%Not listed7.5%3¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Carlos Sainz Jr.4.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoKalshi 7.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carlos Sainz Jr.
4.2%
Not listed
7.5%
3¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carlos Sainz Jr.
4.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoKalshi 7.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carlos Sainz Jr.
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carlos Sainz Jr.
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $200
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carlos Sainz Jr.
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Show 13 more outcomesHide 13 outcomes
Oliver Bearman4.2%Not listed10%2¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Oliver Bearman4.2%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 10%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Oliver Bearman
4.2%
Not listed
10%
2¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Oliver Bearman
4.2%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 10%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oliver Bearman
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oliver Bearman
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oliver Bearman
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $9
Valtteri Bottas4.2%Not listed7.5%3¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Valtteri Bottas4.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoKalshi 7.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Valtteri Bottas
4.2%
Not listed
7.5%
3¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Valtteri Bottas
4.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoKalshi 7.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Valtteri Bottas
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Valtteri Bottas
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $351
Kalshi
- Contract
- Valtteri Bottas
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Liam Lawson4%Not listed5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Liam Lawson4%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Liam Lawson
4%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Liam Lawson
4%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Liam Lawson
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $94
Kalshi
- Contract
- Liam Lawson
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $507
Kalshi
- Contract
- Liam Lawson
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $20
Nico Hulkenberg4%Not listed9%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Nico Hulkenberg4%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 9%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nico Hulkenberg
4%
Not listed
9%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nico Hulkenberg
4%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 9%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nico Hulkenberg
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $94
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nico Hulkenberg
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nico Hulkenberg
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $9
Alexander Albon3.8%Not listed8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Alexander Albon3.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 8.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Alexander Albon
3.8%
Not listed
8.5%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Alexander Albon
3.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 8.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexander Albon
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexander Albon
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexander Albon
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Lance Stroll3.5%Not listed8%4¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Lance Stroll3.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 8%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lance Stroll
3.5%
Not listed
8%
4¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lance Stroll
3.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 8%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lance Stroll
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lance Stroll
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lance Stroll
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Sergio Perez3.5%Not listed7.5%3¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Sergio Perez3.5%Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 7.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Sergio Perez
3.5%
Not listed
7.5%
3¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Sergio Perez
3.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 7.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sergio Perez
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $187
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sergio Perez
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sergio Perez
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Fernando Alonso3.3%Not listed7.5%3¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Fernando Alonso3.3%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 7.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Fernando Alonso
3.3%
Not listed
7.5%
3¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Fernando Alonso
3.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 7.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fernando Alonso
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fernando Alonso
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fernando Alonso
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Arvid Lindblad3.2%Not listed7%3¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Arvid Lindblad3.2%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Arvid Lindblad
3.2%
Not listed
7%
3¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Arvid Lindblad
3.2%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arvid Lindblad
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arvid Lindblad
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arvid Lindblad
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $71
Pierre Gasly3.2%Not listed5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Pierre Gasly3.2%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Pierre Gasly
3.2%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Pierre Gasly
3.2%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pierre Gasly
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pierre Gasly
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $83
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pierre Gasly
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $39
Gabriel Bortoleto2.8%Not listed6%2¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Gabriel Bortoleto2.8%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Gabriel Bortoleto
2.8%
Not listed
6%
2¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Gabriel Bortoleto
2.8%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gabriel Bortoleto
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gabriel Bortoleto
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gabriel Bortoleto
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Franco Colapinto2.8%Not listed4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Franco Colapinto2.8%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Franco Colapinto
2.8%
Not listed
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Franco Colapinto
2.8%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Franco Colapinto
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Franco Colapinto
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $4
Kalshi
- Contract
- Franco Colapinto
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Esteban Ocon2.5%Not listed5%1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 18s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Esteban Ocon2.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Esteban Ocon
2.5%
Not listed
5%
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Esteban Ocon
2.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Esteban Ocon
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Esteban Ocon
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Esteban Ocon
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIA
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Max Verstappen
- Andrea Kimi Antonelli
- George Russell
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Max Verstappen for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Rain during the United States Grand Prix?". Max Verstappen leads at 44%. Next is Andrea Kimi Antonelli at 33.8%. $172K has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 2, 2026.
This market resolves "Yes" if the RAINFALL trace on the FIA Race Weather Report for the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix registers 'Wet' at any point during the Race session for the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix taking place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve "No" if the RAINFALL trace on the FIA Race Weather Report for the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix does not register 'Wet' at any point. This market covers the Race session only. Rain during Free Practice, Qualifying, Sprint or any other session does not affect this market's resolution. If the Race is suspended or restarted, the FIA Race Weather Report covering the complete, final classified running of the Race is the resolution source. If the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix is canceled or postponed to a date after November 2, 2026, this market resolves "No". Declarations by Race Control that "the track is wet", broadcast commentary, news reporting, or any other secondary sources do not qualify for resolution, only the FIA's official Race Weather Report for the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix will qualify. If the FIA Race Weather Report has not been published by November 2, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve off the FIA Weather Report which will be available on the Event&Timing Information page: https://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula-one-world-championship/season-2026/formula-one. If this link is unavailable, the report will be located via FIA's official F1 season hub at fia.com.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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