The Prediction Markets

Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin?

Closes
Jan 8, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$34K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Talarico by 5-10 68%

Next is Talarico by 0-5 at 15.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Talarico by 5-10 68%Talarico by 0-5 15.6%Talarico by 10-15 6.2%Raman by 10-15 5.5%Raman by 0-5 1.6%3 others 3.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Talarico by 5-10
68%
Kalshi 87%(68% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Talarico by 5-10
Last price
87%
Fair, margin removed
68%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico by 0-5
15.6%
Kalshi 20%(15.6% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Talarico by 0-5
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
15.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico by 10-15
6.2%
Kalshi 8%(6.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Talarico by 10-15
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raman by 10-15
5.5%
Kalshi 7%(5.5% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raman by 10-15
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raman by 0-5
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raman by 0-5
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico by 15+
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Talarico by 15+
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raman by 5-10
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raman by 5-10
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raman by 15+
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raman by 15+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk, Texas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Talarico by 5-10
  • Talarico by 0-5
  • Talarico by 10-15

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin?". Talarico by 5-10 leads at 68%. Next is Talarico by 0-5 at 15.6%. $34K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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