The Prediction Markets

REBECCA: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Closes
Nov 22, 2026, in 30 days
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

25k+ 88.5%

Next is 50k+ at 76%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
25k+
88.5%
Polymarket 88.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
25k+
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
50k+
76%
Polymarket 76%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
50k+
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2K
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2K
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$303
Trade this on Kalshi
200k+
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
200k+
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5K
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5K
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
100k+
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
100k+
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 8K
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8K
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12K
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12K
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$577
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10K
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10K
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15K
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15K
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$560
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: hitsdailydouble.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 25k+
  • 50k+
  • Above 2K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 25k+ for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "REBECCA: First Week Album Equivalent Units". 25k+ leads at 88.5%. Next is 50k+ at 76%. $16K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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