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ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Above 1M 65%
Next is Above 2M at 57%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 1M65%65%56¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 1 min ago65¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $154 (1.54x)Above 1M65%Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Above 1M
65%
65%
56¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
65¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Above 1M
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1M
- Last price
- 65%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $216
Above 2M57%57%48¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 1 min ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Above 2M57%Kalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Above 2M
57%
57%
48¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Above 2M
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2M
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $420
Above 3M41%41%32¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 1 min ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Above 3M41%Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Above 3M
41%
41%
32¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Above 3M
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3M
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $429
Above 4M28%28%19¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 1 min ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Above 4M28%Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Above 4M
28%
28%
19¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Above 4M
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4M
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $606
Above 5M15.5%15.5%11¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 1 min ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Above 5M15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 5M
15.5%
15.5%
11¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 5M
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5M
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
Above 6M15%15%6¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Above 6M15%Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Above 6M
15%
15%
6¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Above 6M
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6M
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $359
Above 8M10%10%1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Above 8M10%Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Above 8M
10%
10%
1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Above 8M
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 8M
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $562
Above 12M5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 12M5%Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 12M
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 12M
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 12M
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $565
Above 18M5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 18M5%Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 18M
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 18M
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 18M
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $322
Above 10M4%4%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 10M4%Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 10M
4%
4%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 10M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 10M
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $758
Show 3 more outcomesHide 3 outcomes
Above 16M4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Above 16M4%Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 16M
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 16M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 16M
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $851
Above 14M3%3%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 14M3%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 14M
3%
3%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 14M
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 14M
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $357
Above 20M1%1%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 20M1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 20M
1%
1%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 20M
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 20M
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $309
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 1M
- Above 2M
- Above 3M
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "REBECCA: First Week Streams". Above 1M leads at 65%. Next is Above 2M at 57%. $6K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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